Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US President Trump in Busan. The China - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on issues such as the 301 measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, the extension of the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs and law - enforcement cooperation, agricultural product trade, and export controls. Overall, it's a "one - year truce" between the two countries, and the long - term competition and game between China and the US are certain [6]. - Glass is short - term weak and medium - term in a volatile market. In the short term, due to the industry meeting falling short of expectations, the market's expectation of supply - side contraction in the glass industry has significantly decreased, and with the real - estate market not improving significantly, the price is weak. In the medium term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Core Viewpoint: Gold should focus on US bank risks, and silver is in an oscillating rebound. Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1 [10][13][15]. - Fundamental Data: Provided data on prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of gold and silver futures and spot in domestic and international markets, as well as exchange - rate data [13]. - Macro and Industry News: Included news such as the China - US leaders' meeting, the European Central Bank's "holding steady", the Bank of Japan's maintaining interest rates, and corporate earnings reports [13][16]. Copper - Core Viewpoint: The number of disturbing factors for copper has increased, and the price is oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [10][17][18]. - Fundamental Data: Presented data on copper futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads, as well as spot prices and spreads [17]. - Macro and Industry News: Covered news like the China - US leaders' meeting, the European Central Bank's "holding steady", Indonesia's possible permission for copper concentrate exports, and changes in copper production of some companies [17][18][19]. Zinc - Core Viewpoint: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [10][20][22]. - Fundamental Data: Showed data on zinc futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot premiums, and import and export profits and losses [20]. - News: Included the news of the China - US economic and trade teams reaching consensus [20]. Lead - Core Viewpoint: The continuous reduction of domestic and foreign lead inventories supports the price. The trend strength is 0 [10][23]. - Fundamental Data: Provided data on lead futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot premiums, and import and export profits and losses, as well as inventory data [23]. - News: Mentioned the China - US leaders' meeting [23]. Tin - Core Viewpoint: Tin should focus on macro - level impacts. The trend strength is 0 [10][25][28]. - Fundamental Data: Offered data on tin futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads, as well as spot prices and spreads [25]. - Macro and Industry News: Included news such as the China - US leaders' meeting, the European Central Bank's "holding steady", and corporate earnings reports [25][26]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core Viewpoint: Aluminum's price fluctuation is converging, alumina is slightly declining, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and cast aluminum alloy's is 0 [10][29][31]. - Fundamental Data: Presented data on prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot, as well as cost and profit data [29]. - Comprehensive News: Included news such as the Bank of Japan's maintaining interest rates and the US Senate's passing a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy [31]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Core Viewpoint: Nickel is in a narrow - range oscillation due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel - ore concerns. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drivers. The trend strength of both is 0 [10][32][34]. - Fundamental Data: Provided data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and prices and spreads in the industrial chain [32]. - Macro and Industry News: Included news such as Indonesia's taking over a nickel - ore mining area, China's suspension of a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Indonesia's sanctions on mining companies [32][33]. Lithium Carbonate - Core Viewpoint: After the absolute price of lithium carbonate rises, attention should be paid to the switching of expectations between the Q1 off - season and lithium - ore resumption of work. The trend strength is 0 [10][35][37]. - Fundamental Data: Presented data on lithium carbonate futures prices, trading volumes, positions, basis, and prices in the industrial chain [35]. - Macro and Industry News: Included news such as the increase in lithium - carbonate prices, changes in production and inventory, a lithium - ore auction, and the G7's plan to establish a critical - mineral production alliance [36][37]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Core Viewpoint: Industrial silicon should focus on subsequent warehouse - receipt registration, and polysilicon is in a high - level oscillating state. The trend strength of both is 0 [10][38][40]. - Fundamental Data: Provided data on prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot, as well as cost and profit data [38]. - Macro and Industry News: Included news about the release of the list of enterprises meeting the photovoltaic manufacturing industry's standard conditions [38][40]. Iron Ore - Core Viewpoint: Iron ore is in a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [10][42][43]. - Fundamental Data: Presented data on iron - ore futures prices, positions, spot prices, and spreads [42]. - Macro and Industry News: Included news of the China - US leaders' meeting [42]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Core Viewpoint: Due to the repeated macro - level sentiment, rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength of both is 0 [10][45][46][48]. - Fundamental Data: Provided data on rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot prices, and spreads [46]. - Macro and Industry News: Included news such as changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand, policies supporting commercial real - estate REITs, and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan's suggestions [47][48]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Core Viewpoint: Due to the repeated market sentiment, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength of both is 0 [10][50][53]. - Fundamental Data: Presented data on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot prices, and spreads [50]. - Macro and Industry News: Included news such as price quotes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, changes in production and capacity utilization in different regions, and steel - mill procurement prices [50][52][53]. Coke and Coking Coal - Core Viewpoint: Coke is in a relatively strong oscillation, and coking coal is in a relatively strong oscillation due to the resonance of macro - level and sector - theme factors. The trend strength of both is 0 [10][54][55][56]. - Fundamental Data: Provided data on coke and coking - coal futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot prices, and spreads [55]. - Macro and Industry News: Included news of the China - US leaders' meeting [56]. Logs - Core Viewpoint: Logs are in an oscillating and repeated state [57].
国泰君安期货所长早读-20251031
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-31 02:08