国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Palm oil: Temporarily supported in the short - term, beware of a second dip [2][4] - Soybean oil: With the rebound of US soybeans, the strategy of expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil continues [2][4] - Soybean meal: Fluctuating, waiting for the meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders [2][12] - Soybean: Fluctuating [2][11] - Corn: Weakly fluctuating [2][14] - Sugar: Trading within a range [2][18] - Cotton: The rising cost of new cotton supports the futures price [2][22] - Eggs: Fluctuating and adjusting [2][26] - Hogs: Re - pricing based on production capacity logic [2][28] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2][33] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,828 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% change, and night - session was 8,806 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change; soybean oil's day - session was 8,168 yuan/ton with a 0.44% change, and night - session was 8,156 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change [4] - News: Malaysia plans to strengthen the downstream development of palm oil in Sabah, especially in biodiesel production; about 34% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought as of Oct 28, down from 39% the previous week and 73% last year [5][6] - Trend Intensity: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamentals: DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session closing price was 2,994 yuan/ton with a + 0.67% change, and night - session was 2,990 yuan/ton with a + 0.30% change; DCE soybean 2601's day - session was 4,103 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% change, and night - session was 4,092 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% change [11] - News: China agreed to buy tens of millions of tons of US soybeans in the next few years; the meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders is expected to address tariff issues [11][13] - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [13] Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2601 was 2,111 yuan/ton with a - 0.38% change in the day - session and 2,112 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change in the night - session [15] - News: Northern corn port prices were stable, while Guangdong Shekou prices declined; Northeast corn prices were stable to lower, and North China prices mostly rose [16] - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [17] Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 14.25 cents/pound with a - 0.18 change year - on - year; the mainstream spot price was 5,730 yuan/ton with no change [18] - News: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of Sept increased by 11% year - on - year, but exports decreased; China's sugar imports in Sept were 550,000 tons (+ 150,000 tons) [18] - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [20] Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,600 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, and night - session was 13,640 yuan/ton with a 0.29% change [22] - News: Cotton spot trading was generally average; ICE cotton futures fell due to concerns about US cotton exports [23] - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of egg 2511 was 2,896 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.41% change; egg 2601 was 3,353 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.03% change [26] - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [26] Hogs - Fundamentals: The Henan spot price was 12,480 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan year - on - year; the futures price of hog 2601 was 11,880 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan year - on - year [30] - News: New delivery warehouses were added; the national feed output in Sept was 30.36 million tons, up 3.4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year [32] - Trend Intensity: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [31] Peanuts - Fundamentals: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; PK601's closing price was 7,800 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% change [33] - News: In the spot market, most regions had low supply due to farmers' busy schedules or hoarding, and trading was generally average [34] - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [35]