Guoxin Securities·2025-10-31 02:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][10] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit growth rates have rebounded, with total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 199.645 billion yuan and 69.994 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.80% and 1.90% [1] - The company's asset growth remains stable, with total assets increasing by 6.2% year-on-year to 15.50 trillion yuan as of September 2025 [2] - The net interest margin has narrowed its decline, with a reported net interest margin of 1.20% for the first nine months, down 1 basis point from the second quarter [3] - The overall asset quality is stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.26% as of September, showing improvement from the previous quarter [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1996.45 billion yuan and net profit of 699.94 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.80% and 1.90% year-on-year, respectively [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 662.77 billion yuan, up 3.92% year-on-year, and net profit was 239.78 billion yuan, an increase of 2.46% [1] Asset Growth - As of September 2025, total assets grew by 6.2% year-on-year to 15.50 trillion yuan, with loans (excluding accrued interest) increasing by 7.5% to 9.07 trillion yuan [2] - The company added 516.3 billion yuan in new credit in the first three quarters, with corporate loans increasing by 415.4 billion yuan [2] Interest Income and Non-Interest Income - The net interest income for the first three quarters was 1286.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [3] - Non-interest income from fees and commissions was 293.98 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.15%, while other non-interest income surged by 25.4% to 255.85 billion yuan [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.26% as of September, down 2 basis points from June, and the provision coverage ratio increased to 209.97% [3] - The company’s core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 11.37%, slightly down by 0.05 percentage points from June [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 95.683 billion yuan, 98.849 billion yuan, and 103.224 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 7.1 for 2025, with a PB ratio of 0.61 [4][5]