Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall sentiment remains positive despite a slight retreat in market bullishness after the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's expected rate cut. The probability of a further rate cut in December is low but not a major negative. [2][3] - For copper, with tight raw material supply and low inventories, copper prices are expected to be well - supported after a correction. [3] - For aluminum, supply disruptions and low domestic inventories are likely to drive aluminum prices to fluctuate strongly. [5] - For lead, due to de - stocking of visible lead ore inventories, improved demand, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term. [8] - For zinc, with zinc ore inventory accumulation, high structural risks in LME zinc, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [11] - For tin, short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and with the peak season demand recovery, tin prices may remain high and volatile. [14] - For nickel, high refined nickel inventory pressure drags down prices in the short term, but long - term global fiscal and monetary easing may support nickel prices. [16] - For lithium carbonate, the fundamental outlook is improving, but market sentiment is volatile, so cautious operation is recommended. [20] - For alumina, although there is over - capacity in the short term, the price is close to the cost line, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. [23] - For stainless steel, the market sentiment has improved after the production cut plan, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and it is advisable to wait and see. [25] - For cast aluminum alloy, strong cost support and supply tightness are likely to support prices. [28] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Information: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, copper prices declined. LME copper 3M contract fell 1.44% to $10930/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 87270 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons, and domestic inventories also changed. [2] - Strategy: The expected tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories are likely to support copper prices after a correction. The operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 86500 - 88200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10800 - 11050 dollars/ton. [3] Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded. LME aluminum closed flat at $2870/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21265 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum inventories decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. [4] - Strategy: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventories are likely to drive aluminum prices to fluctuate strongly. The operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21100 - 21400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2820 - 2900 dollars/ton. [5] Lead - Market Information: Shanghai lead index fell 0.07% to 17353 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell to $2022/ton. Domestic and LME lead inventories changed, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. [7] - Strategy: With de - stocking of lead ore visible inventories, improved demand, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term. [8] Zinc - Market Information: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.26% to 22382 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell to $3051/ton. Domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and the structural risk of LME zinc is high. [10] - Strategy: Zinc ore inventory accumulation, high structural risks in LME zinc, and a positive market atmosphere are likely to drive Shanghai zinc to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [11] Tin - Market Information: On October 30, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 283600 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. Supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is a concern, and demand in some sectors is weak. [13] - Strategy: Short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and with the peak season demand recovery, tin prices may remain high and volatile. It is advisable to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 270000 - 292000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 35500 - 37000 dollars/ton. [14] Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices declined. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120660 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. Nickel ore prices were stable to strong, and nickel - iron prices were stable. [15] - Strategy: High refined nickel inventory pressure drags down prices in the short term, but long - term global fiscal and monetary easing may support nickel prices. It is advisable to wait and see, and consider building long positions if the price drops sufficiently. The short - term operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index rose 1.47%. Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased, and the LC2601 contract also rose. [19] - Strategy: Domestic production decreased, social inventories decreased rapidly, and market rumors boosted the market. The fundamental outlook is improving, but market sentiment is volatile. The operating range for the GFI lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 81600 - 85000 yuan/ton. [20] Alumina - Market Information: On October 30, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.04% to 2831 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased, and inventories and prices in different regions changed. [22] - Strategy: Although there is over - capacity in the short term, the price is close to the cost line, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. The operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton. [23] Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12725 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. Spot prices were stable, and inventories changed. [25] - Strategy: The market sentiment has improved after the production cut plan, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and it is advisable to wait and see. [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The AD2512 contract fell 0.34% to 20620 yuan/ton. Inventories decreased, and the trading volume increased. [27] - Strategy: Strong cost support and supply tightness are likely to support prices. [28]
有色金属日报-20251031
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-31 02:02