商品期货早班车-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends across different commodity sectors, with factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes influencing prices. For example, the Fed's interest rate decisions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and seasonal production patterns all play significant roles [3][4]. - Different commodities have distinct investment outlooks. Some are expected to be bullish in the short - term or long - term, while others are likely to be bearish or range - bound. For instance, gold may have short - term volatility but is supported by the de - dollarization logic, while some energy and chemical products may face supply - driven downward pressure in the long run [4][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - Copper: After a sharp decline in price, it is recommended to buy on dips as the short - term trend is a pull - back after hitting a new high. The Fed's rate cut and Sino - US relations, along with LME's position limits, have affected the market [3]. - Aluminum: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and overseas power supply issues, it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - Alumina: The price is expected to decline as it returns to the fundamental surplus logic. However, the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. Buying call options on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the main position changes [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term price is expected to be strong due to high spot demand. High - frequency monitoring of inventory and warehouse receipt changes is recommended, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [5]. - Tin: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, considering factors such as the Fed's rate cut, Sino - US relations, and LME's position limits [5]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold is expected to have significant short - term volatility. Buying on support levels is recommended, and silver long positions should be reduced. The de - dollarization logic remains, but market reactions to the Fed's decisions and Sino - US negotiations are complex [4]. Black Industry - Rebar: Hold long positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3060 - 3130 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is significant structural differentiation [6]. - Iron Ore: Hold long positions, with the I01 reference range of 780 - 810 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is marginally neutral - strong, and the inventory build - up may be slower than the historical average [6]. - Coking Coal: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the JM01 reference range of 1270 - 1320 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is high, and there is an expectation of production contraction [7]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: US soybeans are short - term bullish, focusing on trade negotiations. The domestic market is range - bound, following the cost side. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [8]. - Corn: The futures price is expected to be oscillating weakly due to factors such as damaged grain quality in North China, new grain listing pressure, and production cost reduction [8]. - Oils and Fats: Oils are bearish with structural differences. An anti - spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production areas' output and biodiesel policies [8]. - Cotton: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a range - bound strategy between 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton, considering factors such as the strength of the US dollar and Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - Eggs: The futures price is expected to be range - bound as the pressure eases [9]. - Pigs: The futures price is expected to be range - bound with improved demand and reduced second - fattening [9]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [10]. - PVC: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. Short positions or anti - spreads are recommended [10]. - PTA: The medium - term supply - demand pattern is improving. Long positions are recommended, and shorting the processing margin on rallies is advisable [10]. - Rubber: It is expected to have a short - term pull - back and a medium - term range - bound trend. Band - trading is recommended [11]. - Glass: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. An anti - spread strategy is recommended [11]. - PP: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [11]. - MEG: In the long - term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [11]. - Crude Oil: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. - Styrene: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Shorting on rallies or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered [12]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand is balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].