LPG：11月CP官价略高于市场预期，丙烯：供需偏宽松，短期偏弱震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The November 2025 CP official price of LPG is slightly higher than market expectations, while the supply - demand of propylene is relatively loose, with short - term weak and volatile trends [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: PG2512 closed at 4,286 yesterday with a - 0.60% daily increase and 4,307 in the night session with a 0.49% increase; PG2601 closed at 4,204 yesterday with a - 0.57% daily increase and 4,220 in the night session with a 0.38% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,078 yesterday with a - 0.88% daily increase and 6,060 in the night session with a - 0.30% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,148 yesterday with a - 0.92% daily increase and 6,127 in the night session with a - 0.34% increase [3]. - Positions and Trading Volumes: PG2512's trading volume yesterday was 67,787, a decrease of 14,899 from the previous day, and its position was 104,753, an increase of 3,034; PG2601's trading volume was 9,979, a decrease of 3,832, and its position was 26,201, an increase of 1,942; PL2601's trading volume was 12,890, a decrease of 26,010, and its position was 9,063, a decrease of 1,181; PL2602's trading volume was 5,804, a decrease of 5,527, and its position was 5,268, a decrease of 5 [3]. - Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG12 contract was 114 yesterday (88 the day before); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG12 contract was 164 (138 the day before); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 138 (- 147 the day before); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 78 (- 72 the day before); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 53 (- 107 the day before) [3]. - Key Industrial Chain Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.9% (71.7% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 68.0% (67.8% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 43.6% (44.9% last week) [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 3.3 Market Information - Saudi Aramco's November 2025 CP prices: propane is 475 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton from last month; butane is 460 dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 dollars/ton from last month. The equivalent landed US - dollar cost for propane is 560 dollars/ton and for butane is 545 dollars/ton; the equivalent RMB landed cost for propane is about 4,394 yuan/ton and for butane is about 4,276 yuan/ton [7]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device and LPG factory device maintenance plans. For example, Ningbo Jinfafa New Materials Co., Ltd.'s PDH Phase I will be under maintenance from September 29, 2025, to mid - November 2025; Huaxing Petrochemical's whole - plant maintenance started on October 22, 2024, and is expected to end in November 2025 [8].