PVC：趋势仍偏弱

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the PVC industry trend is still weak, with a trend strength of -1 [2][3] 2) Report's Core View - The PVC market's high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. When the main contract faces delivery issues, PVC will be under pressure again due to factors such as high supply, weak downstream demand, high social inventory, high warehouse receipts, and potential policy disturbances in exports [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Fundamental Data - The 01 - contract futures price is 4766, the East China spot price is 4660, the basis is - 106, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 284 [1] Spot News - This week, the sample - statistical PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% month - on - month to 1.03 billion tons and increased by 25.09% year - on - year [1] Market Condition Analysis - On the profit side, "subsidizing chlorine with soda" results in insufficient driving force for PVC production cuts. After the maintenance devices resume production, the supply side will maintain high operation in winter. The demand for PVC downstream products related to the real estate sector is still weak year - on - year, with low enterprise stocking willingness, poor inventory transfer to downstream, and high social inventory year - on - year. Also, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, increasing the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery [2]