二育情绪转弱，猪价下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating weakly," "oscillating," and "oscillating strongly" [1][2][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and suggests corresponding investment strategies [1][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Product 3.1. Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - Logic: Macro environment includes the US government "shutdown," Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical factors. From the industrial side, US soybean data is suspended, Brazilian soybean planting progress is slower than last year, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and palm oil and rapeseed oil have different inventory trends. - Outlook: Palm oil oscillates, rapeseed oil oscillates, and soybean oil oscillates strongly [5]. 3.2. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The Sino - US talks did not exceed expectations, the US soybean adjusted, and the domestic soybean meal was resistant to decline. - Logic: Internationally, the impact of Sino - US talks is over, and attention is paid to China's soybean purchases. Domestically, short - term downstream procurement interest is average, and long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. - Outlook: The US soybean is undergoing technical adjustment, and attention is paid to China's purchase volume. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread of soybean meal and the double - buy option [6]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - Viewpoint: The futures price dropped again, and continue to hold short positions for observation. - Logic: The recent price rebound was due to low inventory of grain - using enterprises, slow harvest progress, and increased purchases by state - owned warehouses. However, there are still downward drivers in the future, such as high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area. - Outlook: Oscillate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the stop - profit rhythm. Consider long - term low - absorption and near - far month reverse spread strategies [6][7]. 3.4. Hogs - Viewpoint: The second - fattening sentiment weakened, and hog prices declined. - Logic: In the short term, second - fattening utilization increased, but the price rebound inhibited sentiment. In the medium term, hog supply will increase in Q4. In the long term, sow capacity is being reduced, and supply pressure will ease in H2 2026. - Outlook: Oscillate weakly. The hog industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation," and pay attention to reverse spread strategy opportunities [1][2][7]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The willingness to sell increased, and rubber prices fell from high levels. - Logic: Macro factors no longer provided upward momentum, and the previous sharp rise increased the willingness to sell. The market is a bottom - up rebound rather than a reversal. - Outlook: Oscillate. There may be short - term upward space, but chasing long positions has risks [8][9]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: Raw materials continued to weaken, and the futures price temporarily stabilized at a low level. - Logic: The BR futures price rebounded and then oscillated after hitting a new low. Due to the continuous decline of butadiene prices, there may be further downward space. - Outlook: There may be a bottom - up rebound, but there is a possibility of hitting new lows [10][11]. 3.7. Cotton - Viewpoint: Macro - level benefits have been realized, and cotton prices have returned to the fundamental trading logic. - Logic: After the macro - level uncertainties are resolved, the market focuses on fundamentals. New cotton supply is increasing, and the "Golden September and Silver October" season is ending. - Outlook: Oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [11][12]. 3.8. Sugar - Viewpoint: The expected reduction in imports supports sugar prices, but it is still bearish in the medium and long term. - Logic: Internationally, supply will increase in the new sugar - making season. Domestically, imports decreased in September, and the market expects a further reduction in syrup and premixed powder imports. - Outlook: The domestic market may rebound in the short term but is bearish in the medium and long term. Consider a rebound - short strategy [13][14]. 3.9. Pulp - Viewpoint: The spot market is generally weak, and pulp futures are unlikely to rise significantly. - Logic: Fundamental data is bearish, and the futures price increase has not effectively driven up the spot price. There are issues such as weak demand and over - supply in the pulp market. - Outlook: Oscillate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [14][15]. 3.10. Offset Paper - Viewpoint: Offset paper oscillates weakly. - Logic: Supply pressure exists due to new production capacity, dealers have high inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the cost support from wood pulp is limited. - Outlook: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and pay attention to new driving factors [16]. 3.11. Logs - Viewpoint: Logs will maintain low - level oscillations in the short term. - Logic: Futures prices are weak due to concentrated port arrivals, low sales of integrated timber, and high blue - stain wood pressure in the future. - Outlook: Oscillate weakly. Speculative investors can wait and see or try to buy at low prices when it falls below 780 [17][18].