铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Sino-US negotiations concluded, the market's trading expectations were realized, and risk appetite significantly contracted. In the short - term, the market faces adjustment risks due to capital realization pressure, but in the long - run, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. [2][3] - The prices of precious metals may fluctuate in the short - term; copper, aluminum, and other base metals are expected to maintain high - level range - bound oscillations; zinc, lead, and tin prices are in adjustment phases; industrial silicon is expected to be strongly range - bound; lithium carbonate prices may fluctuate widely; nickel prices are at the lower end of the range, awaiting new upward drivers; and the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weak. [4][6][8][12][14][16][17][19][22][24] - Steel prices are expected to be range - bound, iron ore prices will oscillate, soybean and rapeseed meal prices will be strongly range - bound, and palm oil prices will be weakly range - bound. [26][27][28][30] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: After the Sino - US summit, the average tariff faced by China decreased by 10%, and the Sino - US game entered a stage of truce. The Nasdaq fell about 1%, the gold price rebounded over 2% to the $4000 mark, the US dollar index rose to 99.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield fluctuated slightly, copper prices dropped over 2%, and oil prices remained flat. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market rose and then fell, with nearly 4100 stocks closing lower and the trading volume reaching 2.46 trillion. The lithium battery and shipping sectors led the gains, while the ChiNext and STAR Market sectors led the losses. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market priced in all negative factors, and short - and long - term interest rates both declined. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices rebounded slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 0.94% to $4038.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.71% to $48.73 per ounce. The market has doubts about the actual effect of the Sino - US trade agreement, and precious metals prices may oscillate in the short - term. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract was strongly range - bound, and LME copper pulled back at night. The Sino - US trade situation eased, but the path of global central banks turning to easing is uncertain. Fundamentally, overseas mine disruptions continue, and non - US inventory is low. Short - term copper prices are expected to maintain high - level range - bound oscillations. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21280 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The market continues to digest the Fed's interest - rate cut decision. The Sino - US trade agreement is optimistic, but there are supply disturbances overseas and environmental restrictions on some downstream industries in the north. Aluminum prices are in high - level range - bound oscillations. [8][9][10] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2791 yuan/ton, down 1.1%. The supply side is basically stable this week, the spot market trading is light, and the impact of environmental restriction news on the market is limited. Attention should be paid to the expansion of maintenance and production - reduction capacity. [11] 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract was range - bound, and LME zinc oscillated weakly. The market digested Powell's hawkish remarks, and zinc prices adjusted. The supply in November is expected to remain high, with limited increase, and consumption is entering the off - peak season. Zinc prices are affected by macro and market sentiment in the short - term. [12][13] 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract oscillated narrowly. The supply side changed little, demand marginally weakened, and social inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. The lead market shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and prices are expected to maintain high - level narrow - range oscillations. [14][15] 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated weakly. The market lowered the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Tin prices are expected to adjust at a high level, but supply - side disturbances will limit the downward adjustment space. [16] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was strongly range - bound. The supply side is stable, with Xinjiang's operating rate rising and Sichuan and Yunnan's output falling after the dry season. The demand side has mixed signals. The social inventory decreased slightly last week, and the futures price is expected to continue to be strongly range - bound. [17][18] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely, and spot prices rose. The new energy vehicle industry has mixed demand signals. With the increase in positions and trading volume, the long - short contradiction is intensifying, and it is advisable to wait and see. [19][20][21] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The Sino - US high - level meeting reached multiple consensuses, but the fundamental supply pressure is strong. Nickel prices are at the lower end of the range, with limited room for a deep decline, waiting for upward drivers. [22][23] 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash main contract oscillated weakly, and the glass main contract also showed a weak trend. Glass production is stable, but there is supply pressure. The downstream has structural differentiation, and the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weak, with attention paid to previous lows for support. [24][25] 3.13 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded. Steel production and apparent demand increased, and inventory decreased. In the short - term, the pressure eased, but with the cold weather, the supply - demand situation will turn weak. Steel prices are expected to be range - bound. [26] 3.14 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. Steel production increased, and steel mills actively purchased raw materials. Supply pressure was partially relieved, and port inventory decreased. After the macro - level positive factors were realized, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. [27] 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The drought in US soybean - growing areas eased, and the soybean production forecast in Brazil's Paraná state increased. China has resumed purchasing US soybeans, and short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to be strongly range - bound. [28][29] 3.16 Palm Oil - Palm oil futures fell slightly. After the Sino - US high - level meeting, the market digested Powell's hawkish remarks. The current driving news is scarce, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly range - bound. [30] 3.17 Metal Trading Data - The trading data of various metals, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., are provided, showing closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. [31] 3.18 Industrial Data - The industrial data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including contract prices, warehouse receipts, inventory, spot premiums, and price ratios, are presented, along with their changes over time. [32][34][35]