申银万国期货首席点评：欧洲央行维持三大利率不变

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - asset is becoming more prominent, but it is adjusting after a rapid rise. Copper prices are likely to be supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages. The downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse. Market styles of stocks may become more balanced, and bonds are expected to maintain a good operation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Chief Comments - The European Central Bank keeps its three major interest rates unchanged. The US cancels a 10% so - called fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods, and suspends a 24% tariff for another year, among other trade - related concessions. Most domestic futures closed down at night [1]. b. Key Varieties - Precious Metals: Gold and silver rebounded last night after a continuous decline. Although the Fed cut interest rates and ended QT, the driving factors weakened, leading to an adjustment after a rapid rise. Long - term, gold's status as a safe - asset is strengthening [2]. - Copper: Copper prices closed lower at night. Supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may cause a supply - demand gap, supporting prices in the long - run [3]. - Crude Oil: SC crude oil fell 0.24% at night. OPEC's supply increased in September, and the downward trend remains [3]. c. Daily Main News - International News: The eurozone's Q3 GDP had better - than - expected growth, but member states' performance diverged [6]. - Domestic News: The results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, covering issues such as trade, investment, and TikTok [7]. - Industry News: 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, expected to drive over 7 trillion yuan in project investment [8]. d. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined. The US dollar index rose, ICE Brent crude oil fell slightly, and London gold and silver prices increased [10]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - Financial: - Stock Index: Although Sino - US leaders agreed to strengthen economic cooperation, the stock index did not rise significantly. The market style may become more balanced [11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's support for a loose monetary policy and the Fed's interest - rate decision affected the bond market [12]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: The downward trend is difficult to reverse as OPEC supply increased [14]. - Methanol: Market fluctuations intensified due to uncertainties, with inventory rising and potential large - scale imports [15]. - Rubber: Supply may increase, and demand support is limited. Weather may affect production, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [16]. - Polyolefins: They followed the crude oil trend. Demand was stable, and the market is likely to start oscillating after a short - term rebound [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18]. - Metals: - Precious Metals: Similar to the analysis in the key varieties section, with a long - term upward trend and short - term adjustment [19]. - Copper: Similar to the key varieties section, with long - term price support [20]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply may increase, and the price may fluctuate in a range [21]. - Black Metals: - Coking Coal and Coke: The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation, affected by steel demand and inventory [22]. - Agricultural Products: - Protein Meal: Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well. The US soybean price is affected by trade negotiations, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [23]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil production is expected to increase, and the supply - side pressure suppresses the short - term market [24]. - Sugar: The international sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [25]. - Cotton: The cotton price is expected to maintain a slightly strong oscillation, supported by the purchase price [26]. - Shipping Index: - Container Shipping to Europe: The market sentiment is affected by Sino - US trade policies. The price may have a chance to rise during the peak season [27].