生猪：产能逻辑重新计价

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: October 31, 2025 [1] - Report title: "Pigs: Resetting the Capacity Logic" [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [2] Group 2: Pig Fundamental Data Price - Henan spot price: 12,480 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -100 [3] - Sichuan spot price: 12,350 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of 0 [3] - Guangdong spot price: 13,060 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of 200 [3] Futures Price - Live hog 2511: 11,950 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -90 [3] - Live hog 2601: 11,880 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -305 [3] - Live hog 2603: 11,410 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -160 [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Live hog 2511: Trading volume 4,203 lots, down 1,074 from the previous day; Open interest 3,735 lots, down 2,266 from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2601: Trading volume 112,404 lots, up 43,845 from the previous day; Open interest 135,813 lots, up 16,025 from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2603: Trading volume 27,073 lots, up 7,296 from the previous day; Open interest 104,084 lots, up 6,657 from the previous day [3] Spread - Live hog 2511 basis: 530 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -10 [3] - Live hog 2601 basis: 600 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of 205 [3] - Live hog 2603 basis: 1,070 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of 60 [3] - Live hog 11 - 1 spread: 70 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of 215 [3] - Live hog 1 - 3 spread: 470 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -145 [3] Group 3: Market Information - Trend strength: -1, indicating a bearish view [4] Group 4: Futures Research - New delivery warehouses added by Yuexiu and Yangxiang [5] - In September, the national feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5% [5]