黑色建材日报：宏观预期兑现，盘面短期承压-20251031

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The macro - expected situation has been realized, and the market is under short - term pressure. The supply - demand contradictions in glass, soda ash, and double - silicon sectors continue to affect the prices of related products [1][3] 3. Market Analysis and Strategy by Product Glass - Market Analysis: The glass futures market dropped significantly yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for刚需. The开工 rate of float glass enterprises this week was 80.63%, unchanged from last week, and the factory inventory was 65.79 million heavy boxes, a 1.24% decrease from last week, showing obvious inventory reduction. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still large, the inventory pressure is still at a historically high level, and the futures - cash merchants are squeezing the market share of glass factories. With the end of the consumption peak season and the potential for some production lines to resume production, the glass price is expected to remain under pressure [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The soda ash futures market showed a weak oscillating trend yesterday. Downstream procurement is mainly for刚需 replenishment. This week, the soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a 2.29% increase from last week, and the inventory was 1.702 million tons, a 0.01% decrease from last week. The supply - demand contradiction remains, with the supply expected to increase further, the刚需 showing resilience, and the speculative demand weakening. The inventory reduction pressure will persist throughout the year [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicomanganese - Market Analysis: The main contract of silicomanganese futures first rose and then fell, closing at 5,842 yuan/ton yesterday. The spot market was stable, and the alloy cost support was fair. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Although silicomanganese enterprises are facing increasing losses, the production remains high, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. Recently, coking coal has driven the upward movement of the black sector, strengthening the bottom support of silicomanganese. It is expected that the silicomanganese price will continue to fluctuate with the sector [3] - Strategy: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures tried to rise in the morning but faced pressure and then declined in the afternoon under the influence of the black sector. The spot market sentiment was flat, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. Currently, ferrosilicon enterprises have high production and high inventory, and the demand is expected to weaken. Although enterprises are continuously losing money, it has not effectively curbed production, and the weak fundamental situation is difficult to reverse. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon price will follow the sector [3] - Strategy: Oscillating [4]