丙烯日报：PDH装置重启提负，丙烯开工环比上升-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 short the spread when the price difference is high; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of propylene is continuously abundant due to the restart of the PDH unit of Lihuayi Weiyuan and the increased load of previously restarted units, and the overall propylene start - up rate has increased. The demand side is mainly rigid demand, and there is no obvious improvement. The cost support of propylene has weakened as crude oil and propane prices are weak. The current supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remain loose, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the cost side and the start - up and shutdown status of PDH units [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 6078 yuan/ton (- 127), the spot price in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (- 60), the spot price in North China is 5940 yuan/ton (- 45), the basis in East China is - 78 yuan/ton (+ 67), the basis in North China is - 138 yuan/ton (+ 9). The operating rate is 75% (+ 1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 174 US dollars/ton (- 3), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 97 US dollars/ton (- 1), the import profit is - 265 yuan/ton (- 14), and the in - plant inventory is 46260 tons (+ 4770) [1] - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 43% (+ 2.00%), and the production profit is 40 yuan/ton (+ 45); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 69% (+ 1%), and the production profit is - 488 yuan/ton (- 68); the operating rate of n - butanol is 84% (- 2%), and the production profit is - 45 yuan/ton (+ 28); the operating rate of octanol is 89% (+ 1%), and the production profit is - 349 yuan/ton (+ 32); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 67% (- 7%), and the production profit is 765 yuan/ton (+ 18); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 79% (+ 0%), and the production profit is - 347 yuan/ton (+ 47); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 78% (+ 0%), and the production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The restart of the PDH unit of Lihuayi Weiyuan and the increased load of previously restarted units have led to an increase in the operating rate of PDH units and the overall propylene operating rate. The supply of propylene is continuously abundant. Attention should be paid to the external procurement demand brought by the shutdown of Binhua's 600,000 - ton PDH unit [2] - Demand side: The price of propylene has weakened, and downstream replenishment is cautious, mainly with rigid demand. The overall downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of PP powder has increased significantly due to the commissioning of the third - phase PP powder unit of Zhongjing. The operating rate of acrylic acid has decreased significantly due to short - term maintenance of some units and load reduction of others. The operating rate of propylene oxide has increased slightly [2] - Cost side: Crude oil has started to decline with the expected increase in production by OPEC +, and the official price of Saudi CP propane has continued to fall to 475 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous month. The cost support of propylene has weakened [2] 3.3 Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 short the spread when the price difference is high; Inter - variety: None [3] 3.4 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11] 3.5 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes figures such as the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [17][19][24] 3.6 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes figures such as the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] 3.7 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][46] 3.8 Propylene Inventory - The report includes figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]