油脂日报：供应依然良好，油脂震荡运行-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With good rapeseed production in Canada and good progress in soybean planting in Brazil, the overall supply is expected to remain loose in the future [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,828.00 yuan/ton, a change of -14 yuan or -0.16% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,168.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan or +0.44% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,529.00 yuan/ton, a change of +4.00 yuan or +0.04% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,690.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was P01 - 138.00, a change of +14.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,340.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan/ton or +0.72%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 172.00, a change of +24.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was OI01 + 371.00, a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Market News - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,007,389 tons, an increase of 16.07% from the previous month and 7.97% from the same period last year. Rapeseed oil production was 425,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.72%. Rapeseed meal production was 589,724 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.52% and a year - on - year increase of 8.32%. The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume in the 2025/26 season was 1,875,333 tons, rapeseed oil production was 792,629 tons, and rapeseed meal production was 1,104,666 tons [2] - The estimated soybean production in Paraná, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, higher than the September forecast of 21.94 million tons. The estimated first - crop corn production is 346,000 tons, higher than the September forecast of 340,000 tons. The estimated wheat production is 275,000 tons, higher than the previous month's forecast of 268,000 tons [2]