农产品日报：上下空间受限，板块整体震荡-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market's supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external markets under pressure and long - term attention on US cotton production and export. In China, short - term cotton price upward space is limited, but long - term prospects are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2] - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle. Brazilian sugar production may decline in the short term, but long - term rebound is restricted. In China, short - term sugar price rebound space is limited, and the lower space is also restricted [4][5] - The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance with loose supply and weak demand. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the peak season [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,600 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang factory price was 14,658 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,843 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1] - India's cotton production is expected to increase to 530 - 570 million tons, and new cotton arrivals are increasing [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market supply - demand will be loose, with short - term external markets under pressure. Domestically, old - season cotton inventory is low, but new cotton supply is increasing. Short - term cotton price upward space is limited, and long - term prospects are optimistic [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term, the cotton price may test the previous low, and long - term, it can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5472 yuan/ton yesterday, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.40%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5720 yuan/ton [3] - Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of October crushed 34.037 million tons of sugarcane, up 0.3% year - on - year, and produced 2.484 million tons of sugar, up 1.25% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production may decline in the short term, but long - term rebound is restricted. In China, short - term sugar price rebound space is limited, and the lower space is also restricted [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Pay attention to whether 5400 can form a phased support [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5224 yuan/ton yesterday, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp was 4990 yuan/ton [5] - Imported wood pulp spot market prices were basically stable, with only individual fluctuations [6] Market Analysis - Supply is loose, with overseas production reduction plans having limited impact and domestic imports increasing. Demand is weak both globally and in China, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the peak season [7]