尿素日报：新单交投清淡-20251031

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Intertemporal: On hold [3] - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot trading weakened after the price increase this week following the simultaneous rise in futures and spot prices last week. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, awaiting a driving force. In the medium to long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. The export sentiment still affects urea, and attention should be paid to the subsequent export dynamics and the procurement rhythm in Northeast China and the national off-season storage rhythm [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On October 30, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,627 yuan/ton (-17). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,580 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,590 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was -27 yuan/ton (+17), in Henan was -47 yuan/ton (+17), and in Jiangsu was -37 yuan/ton (+17) [1] Urea Production - As of October 30, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.32% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5543 million tons (-75,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons (-100,000 tons) [1] Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 872 yuan/ton (+10) [1] Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Urea exports in September were 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1, with the bid closing on October 15 and the offer validity period until October 30. The latest shipping date is December 10, and a total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was 402 US dollars/ton on the west coast and 395 US dollars/ton on the east coast [2] Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - As of October 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04% (+3.33%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98% (+1.68%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.53 days (+0.12) [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The national high inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased this week [2]