氯碱日报：碱弱氯强，烧碱累库加剧悲观氛围-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market rebounds with macro - sentiment. The supply is abundant due to the recovery of some maintenance enterprises and the mass - production of new capacities. The demand shows increased downstream开工 but average trading atmosphere. The export has growth potential but may be affected by anti - dumping investigations. The PVC futures are under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases with new capacities and the recovery of some enterprises. The demand is affected by environmental control in the alumina sector and may turn weak in the non - aluminum off - season. However, the expected alumina plant construction in Guangxi may support the price [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of PVC futures main contract is 4766 yuan/ton (- 9), the East China basis is - 86 yuan/ton (+ 49), and the South China basis is - 6 yuan/ton (+ 49) [1]. - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4680 yuan/ton (+ 40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4760 yuan/ton (+ 40) [1]. - Upstream Production Profit: The calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 723 yuan/ton (- 10), and the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 560 yuan/ton (- 8). The PVC export profit is - 5.9 dollars/ton (- 1.3) [1]. - Inventory and Operation: The PVC factory inventory is 33.4 tons (- 2.7), the social inventory is 55.5 tons (- 0.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.47% (+ 4.82%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 78.50% (- 0.06%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.09% (+ 3.35%). The production enterprise's pre - sales volume is 63.5 tons (+ 8.0) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 2317 yuan/ton (- 44), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 183 yuan/ton (+ 44) [1]. - Spot Price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+ 0). The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 1005.8 yuan/ton (+ 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 163.78 yuan/ton (+ 30.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1084.24 yuan/ton (+ 50.00) [2]. - Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.26 tons (+ 2.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.73 tons (+ 0.28), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.30% (+ 3.50%) [2]. - Downstream Operation: The alumina operation rate is 86.27% (+ 0.05%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 68.06% (+ 0.75%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.66% (+ 1.05%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises resume production, and new capacities are gradually put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: The downstream operation rate increases, but the trading atmosphere is average. The social inventory shows a slight decline, but the absolute value is high. The export volume in September is 34.64 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21.94% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative export volume is 292.15 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50.58% [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The new capacity of Tianjin Bohua is in full production, and the 10 - ton capacity of Tangshan Sanyou is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. The operation rate rebounds [3]. - Demand: The alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the unloading efficiency decreases. The alumina operation in Hebei is slightly reduced due to environmental control and is planned to resume on October 31. The non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and may turn weak in the off - season [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely with the macro - sentiment. - Inter - delivery: Reverse arbitrage for V01 - 05 when the price is high [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see [5].