Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are cautiously bullish, and BR is neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic inventory has further declined since early October due to the temporary slowdown of domestic arrivals and the rebound of downstream tire operating rates, leading to a faster outbound rate than the inbound rate at ports. The demand for domestic snow tires has increased, driving the continuous rebound of downstream tire operating rates. The cost - side support of natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is expected to increase during the peak season. The overall domestic supply and demand may show a pattern of strong growth on both sides. If the arrival volume rebounds, the depletion of domestic social inventory will slow down or even accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and there is a demand for price rebound under a warm macro - environment. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities for the monthly spread. For BR, there are still many devices under maintenance, and the supply - side support is expected to remain. The demand for domestic snow tires has increased, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom support for BR prices, but the weak upstream butadiene prices drag down the cost [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 225 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,800 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of + 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,930 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, a change of - 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck sales: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2] - Natural rubber imports: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - Thai natural rubber exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the total export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the total export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2] - Automobile production and sales: In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] - Rubber tire exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] - EU passenger car market: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On October 30, 2025, the RU basis was - 600 yuan/ton (+ 275), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 470 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,136 yuan/ton (- 3,135.67), the NR basis was 727.00 yuan/ton (+ 58.00); the price of whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14,930 yuan/ton (- 220), the 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (- 20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,730 yuan/ton (- 220) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.99 Thai baht/kg (- 0.83), the price of Thai glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.05), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 2.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.45) [5] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 124,020 tons (- 10,980), and the NR futures inventory was 42,640 tons (+ 2,521) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spread: On October 30, 2025, the BR basis was - 100 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of Shandong private butadiene rubber was 10,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 2,003 yuan/ton (- 49) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.77% (- 4.93%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [6] Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities for the monthly spread. For BR, maintain a neutral stance [7]
化工日报：到港量回升，天然橡胶基差走弱-20251031
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-31 02:49