化工日报：本周华东主港MEG延续累库-20251031

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol (EG) decreased, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4032 yuan/ton (down 68 yuan/ton, - 1.66% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot price at 4145 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton, - 0.31% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was 78 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 42 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 602 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The inventory of MEG in the East China main port showed different trends according to different data sources. According to CCF, it was 52.3 tons (down 5.6 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons month - on - month). The planned arrival volume this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, the domestic ethylene glycol load is running at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. The import expectation changes little. On the demand side, the polyester downstream has moderately improved recently, which boosts the overall sentiment [2]. - The strategy suggests being cautiously bearish on the single - side, conducting an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605, and having no cross - variety strategy [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG East China spot price and basis are presented, with the price and basis changes as mentioned above [1][6][7] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based EG are analyzed, along with the overall and syngas - based EG operating rates [1][10][14] International Price Difference - The international price difference between US FOB and China CFR of ethylene glycol is involved [17][19] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The production and sales of filaments and short fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips are included [18][20][22] Inventory Data - The inventory data of the East China port, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, Shanghai + Changshu Port, the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume of the East China port are analyzed [29][30][33]