国债期货日报：美联储偏鹰，国债期货涨跌分化-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, most Treasury bond futures closed higher the previous day. Overall, the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: Social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.79%; M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, down 0.40% from the previous period with a decline rate of 4.55%; manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, up 0.40% from the previous period with a growth rate of 0.81% [10]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index was 99.52, up 0.39 with a growth rate of 0.39%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1000, up 0.003 with a growth rate of 0.04%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, down 0.03 with a decline rate of 1.85%; DR007 was 1.50, down 0.04 with a decline rate of 2.81%; R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.49%; the 3 - month yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.00 with a decline rate of 0.30%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 with a decline rate of 0.30% [11]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts, the price increases and decreases of Treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation of funds in Treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [13][16][18][22]. 3. Overview of the Money Market's Capital Situation - The report includes charts on the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, the issuance of local bonds, the inter - term spread trend of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot bond's term spread and the futures' cross - variety spread (4TS - T) [27][28][32]. 4. Spread Overview - The report presents charts about the spread between the spot bond's term spread and the futures' cross - variety spread, such as (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), and (2TS - 3TF + T) [36][37][40]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][42][49]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [51][56]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers charts on the implied yield and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [58][59]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied yield and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [65][71]. 9. Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: As the repurchase interest rate declines, a cautious and bullish stance is recommended for the 2512 contract [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Attention should be paid to the basis rebound of the 2512 contract [5]. - Hedging Strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].