新能源及有色金属日报：电解铝社会库存小幅下滑-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report Core View - In the long - term, with supply constraints, the high industry profit is not a factor limiting the rise of aluminum prices. Short - term price increases require resonance of positive macro and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a small increase in social inventory, and long - term long opportunities can be considered after short - term pullbacks. For alumina, the current price is undervalued, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the replenishment behavior of electrolytic aluminum plants is hard to sustain. [6][7][8] Summary According to Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On October 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,060 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 135 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [1] Aluminum Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,290 yuan/ton, closed at 21,245 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 21,360 yuan/ton and a low of 21,210 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,592 lots, and the open interest was 275,967 lots. [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 619,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 66,418 tons, up 374 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 459,525 tons, down 3,225 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Alumina Spot Price - On October 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,845 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,015 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,875 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.98%, with a high of 2,879 yuan/ton and a low of 2,803 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 436,078 lots, and the open interest was 392,755 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,905 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 5 yuan/ton. [5] Market Analysis - Electrolytic Aluminum: The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the long - term, with supply constraints, high profit is not a limiting factor for price increase. In the short - term, price increase needs positive macro and strong consumption. In the current off - season, social inventory has a small increase, and it is expected to accumulate slightly in July. Even after accumulation, the inventory is still at a historical low level, and delivery risks should be long - term vigilant. [6] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand. The market activity has increased, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. The cost of the northern ore supply is still tight, and the import ore is slightly declining. The reduction of ore price does not improve the alumina smelting loss, and the ex - factory price is under greater pressure. [7][8] Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. [9] - Arbitrage: Long the near - term and short the far - term in Shanghai aluminum. [9]