宏观日报：中美贸易冲突暂缓-20251031

Industry Overview Production and Service Industries - In the production industry, through the Kuala Lumpur consultations between China and the US, the US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year, suspend the implementation of the 50% penetrative export control rule announced on September 29 for one year, and suspend the implementation of the Section 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China has also adjusted its counter - measures accordingly. Consensus was also reached on fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. The results of the Madrid economic and trade consultations were further confirmed, with the US making positive commitments in investment and other fields, and China will properly resolve the TikTok - related issue with the US [1] - In the service industry, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, expected to drive total project investment of over 7 trillion yuan. The instruments mainly support areas such as technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade. The new policy - based financial instruments of the China Development Bank, the Export - Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China support 1054, over 360, and 881 projects respectively, and are expected to drive total project investment of 3.85 trillion yuan, over 1.3 trillion yuan, and over 1.93 trillion yuan respectively [1] Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream - Upstream: Black - glass prices have dropped significantly; in agriculture, palm oil prices have fallen while pork prices have risen slightly; in the energy sector, liquefied natural gas prices have continued to rise [2] - Mid - stream: In the chemical industry, PX开工率 has remained stable; in infrastructure, the asphalt开工率 has declined [2] - Downstream: In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally declined; in the service sector, the number of domestic flights has increased [2] Price Indexes - Agriculture: On October 30, the spot price of corn was 2148.6 yuan/ton, down 1.18% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.2 yuan/kg, up 1.15% year - on - year; the spot price of palm oil was 8850.0 yuan/ton, down 2.81% year - on - year; the spot price of cotton was 14846.5 yuan/ton, up 0.27% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, up 1.30% year - on - year [36] - Non - ferrous Metals: On October 29, the spot price of copper was 87773.3 yuan/ton, up 3.24% year - on - year; the spot price of zinc was 22272.0 yuan/ton, up 1.76% year - on - year; the spot price of aluminum was 21176.7 yuan/ton, up 1.11% year - on - year; the spot price of nickel was 122116.7 yuan/ton, down 0.20% year - on - year [36] - Ferrous Metals: On October 29, the spot price of iron ore was 810.0 yuan/ton, up 1.94% year - on - year; the spot price of wire rod was 3340.0 yuan/ton, up 1.29% year - on - year; the spot price of glass was 13.9 yuan/square meter, down 5.33% year - on - year [36] - Non - metals: On October 30, the spot price of natural rubber was 14958.3 yuan/ton, up 1.07% year - on - year; the China Plastic City price index was 778.3, down 0.03% year - on - year [36] - Energy: On October 30, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 60.5 US dollars/barrel, up 3.38% year - on - year; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 64.9 US dollars/barrel, up 3.72% year - on - year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 4338.0 yuan/ton, up 8.72% year - on - year; the coal price was 809.0 yuan/ton, up 0.50% year - on - year [36] - Chemical Industry: On October 29, the spot price of PTA was 4554.8 yuan/ton, up 3.15% year - on - year; the spot price of polyethylene was 7135.0 yuan/ton, up 0.82% year - on - year; the spot price of urea was 1627.5 yuan/ton, up 3.50% year - on - year; the spot price of soda ash was 1210.0 yuan/ton, up 0.53% year - on - year [36] - Real Estate: On October 30, the cement price index nationwide was 137.2, up 2.16% year - on - year; the building materials composite index was up 1.53% year - on - year; the national concrete price index was 91.0, down 0.19% year - on - year [36]