农产品日报：二育进场减少，猪价偏弱震荡-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg industry is also cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the pig market, although the current second - fattening sentiment is high, it doesn't change the total supply in the market and will increase future supply. The short - term price is firm due to second - fattening, but the long - term supply pressure remains large, and changes in second - fattening and production capacity need attention [2] - For the egg market, the overall demand is weak. Although the egg sales have accelerated this week, it's short - lived. There is inventory accumulation in the production area, and the demand is at a normal off - season level. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is hard to change in the short term [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,880 yuan/ton, a change of - 305.00 yuan/ton (- 2.50%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.49 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.14 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.71 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.05 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.30 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.03 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 17.96 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease from yesterday [1] Market Analysis - Second - fattening is mainly undertaken by retail investors who prefer to raise large fat pigs, leading to a prominent problem of postponed pig supply. The short - term price is firm, but the long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [2] Strategy - The strategy is cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3157 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 8.00 yuan (- 0.25%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.89 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.73 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.06 yuan/jin. On October 30, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, both unchanged from yesterday [3][4] Market Analysis - The overall demand is weak. The egg sales have accelerated this week but briefly. There is inventory accumulation in the production area, and the terminal purchases on - demand. There is no short - term positive boost, and each link focuses on digesting previous inventory [5] Strategy - The strategy is cautiously bearish as the number of laying hens in production remains high and is difficult to reduce quickly in the short term, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is hard to change [6]