宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年10月31日）-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for Treasury bond futures is mainly characterized by consolidation, with limited upside and downside potential. Short - term expectations of interest rate cuts have decreased, but medium - and long - term expectations of a loose monetary policy remain. The market is supported by the need for a loose monetary environment in the long run due to insufficient domestic effective demand, but short - term upward momentum is lacking as the macro - economic data shows strong resilience and the necessity for a full - scale interest rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall view of "sideways". The core logic is that short - term expectations of interest rate cuts have decreased while medium - and long - term expectations of a loose policy remain [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties TL, T, TF, and TS have an intraday view of "sideways with a weak bias" and a medium - term view of "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures consolidated yesterday. After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, Sino - US economic and trade issues have been substantially eased, reducing uncertainty risks. Domestically, although there is a need for a loose monetary environment in the long run due to insufficient effective demand, the macro - economic data shows strong resilience, making a full - scale interest rate cut less necessary. Therefore, in the short term, Treasury bond futures have limited upside and downside potential and will mainly consolidate [5].