宝城期货资讯早班车-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market information. It shows that the global economic situation is complex, with various factors influencing different markets. For example, the Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a series of consensus, which will have an impact on trade and related industries; the gold market is in a high - frequency volatile stage, and the demand and price trends are affected by multiple factors; the bond market has different trends at home and abroad, and the currency and exchange markets also show certain fluctuations [1][2][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In September 2025, GDP growth rate decreased to 4.8% from 5.2% in the previous quarter, but was higher than 4.6% in the same period last year. Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8% from 49.4% in the previous month, and non - manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.0% from 50.3%. Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other indicators also showed different trends. CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, while social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.46% year - on - year. Exports and imports increased by 8.3% and 7.4% respectively year - on - year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a series of consensus, including the cancellation of 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods by the US, the suspension of some export control and investigation measures, and the expansion of agricultural product trade. The Ministry of Commerce issued an implementation plan for expanding green trade, promoting the greening of foreign trade transportation and the use of clean energy. On October 30, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 28 had negative basis. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% [2][3][4] 3.2.2 Metals - The Ministry of Commerce formulated the application conditions and procedures for tungsten, antimony, and silver export state - owned trading enterprises from 2026 - 2027. Gold entered a high - frequency volatile stage, and many banks adjusted the purchase rules of gold accumulation products. In the third quarter of 2025, global central banks increased their gold purchases, with a net purchase of 220 tons, an increase of 28% from the second quarter and 10% year - on - year. China's retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 152 tons in the third quarter, a 7% year - on - year decrease, but the amount reached 120.4 billion yuan, a 29% year - on - year increase. The target price range of gold at the end of 2026 was raised by Wells Fargo. The inventories of some metals such as tin, zinc, and aluminum decreased [6][7] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Henan Province issued an action plan for the quality improvement and upgrading of the steel and coal industries, aiming to promote enterprise restructuring and integration, and improve the level of clean development and intelligent construction [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The World Bank predicted that global commodity prices may decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2026. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned issues such as the integration of the shipbuilding industry, Japan's energy dependence, and potential investment. The US Energy Secretary said that the US could supply natural gas and oil to South Korea. Ukraine will resume importing natural gas through the Trans - Balkan route in November, and Nigeria approved a 15% import tariff on gasoline and diesel [9][10][12] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of October 30, 113 A - share food and beverage listed companies' Q3 2025 reports showed that the total revenue was 630.845 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.99%, and the net profit was 137.676 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%. India will impose a 30% import tariff on yellow peas from November 1. The EU Commission adjusted the forecast of ordinary wheat production and maintained the forecasts of other indicators [14][15] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 30, the central bank conducted 342.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, and the net investment was 130.1 billion yuan [16][17] 3.3.2 Important News - The leaders of China and the US held a meeting, and the economic and trade teams reached a consensus on resolving issues. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur achieved multiple consensus results. Five departments jointly issued a document to improve the duty - free shop policy from November 1. 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan. The central bank released the 2025 RMB internationalization report. The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q3 2025 was 3.07%. The pilot area of pension wealth management products was expanded to the whole country. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed to build a new real estate development model. 21 troubled real estate enterprises completed debt restructuring, with a total debt resolution scale of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. The US federal government shutdown may cause economic losses. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned the selection of the Fed Chairman. The central banks of Japan and Europe maintained their benchmark interest rates unchanged. Meta Platforms' corporate bond issuance received a large - scale subscription. Some companies had bond - related major events, and overseas credit ratings of some companies were adjusted [18][19][22] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The sentiment in the inter - bank bond market was warm, with bond yields falling, and most Treasury bond futures rising. The money market interest rates mostly declined. The yields of some financial bonds of policy - based banks were determined. The yields of European and US bonds rose [25][28][29] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1107, down 116 points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [30] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believed that the bond market had insufficient odds and winning rates in 2025, and a defensive strategy was more advantageous. It also expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps in December. Huatai Fixed Income thought that Hong Kong - style urban investment institutions had investment value [31][32][33] 3.4 Stock Market - A - shares declined with heavy trading volume, with technology - related stocks falling and the lithium - battery industry chain rising. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.84%. The total trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. Hong Kong stocks also declined, with the Hang Seng Index falling 0.24%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of 13.641 billion Hong Kong dollars. The margin trading balance of A - shares exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, and the semiconductor industry received significant net purchases from margin funds [34][35]