燃料油11月报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supported by feedstock demand in October, with stable high - sulfur cracking and spot premiums. In the future, pay attention to Russia's supply and export under strengthened sanctions and the issuance of crude oil quotas. Feedstock demand may be affected [4][5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Faced with continuous supply pressure in October, with declining spot premiums and cracking. The ARDS device maintenance of Al - Zour refinery brings short - term supply gaps, while the RFCC device maintenance of Dangote refinery is expected to increase supply. Pay attention to refinery device returns and export volume changes [4][5]. - Strategy recommendation: Short - term unilateral trading should be on the sidelines; for arbitrage, short the FU1 - 5 spread on rebounds and go long on low - sulfur internal - external spreads at low levels; no option strategy is recommended [6][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supported by feedstock demand from the US and China in October, with high - sulfur cracking fluctuating stably between - 4 and - 3 US dollars/barrel. Spot premiums oscillated at a medium - level. Supply from major regions increased slightly [4][10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Suffered from continuous supply pressure in October, with spot premiums dropping by about 2.8 US dollars to - 2.6 US dollars/ton compared to the end of September. Cracking also declined by about 2.9 US dollars to 4.7 US dollars/barrel, at a low - level. There was no specific demand support [4][10]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil: Pay attention to Russia's supply and export under strengthened sanctions, which are expected to be less affected. The expected issuance of crude oil quotas may impact feedstock demand [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The ARDS device maintenance of Al - Zour refinery brings short - term supply gaps, while the RFCC device maintenance of Dangote refinery is expected to increase supply. Pay attention to refinery device returns and export volume changes [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short - term wait - and - see. - Arbitrage: Short the FU1 - 5 spread on rebounds. Go long on low - sulfur internal - external spreads at low levels. - Options: None [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supported by feedstock demand, cracking was stable. Supply from major regions increased, including Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East. Spot premiums were at a medium - level [10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply pressure continued, with declining spot premiums and cracking. Dangote and Malay local refineries' device maintenance increased supply in the Singapore region, and there was no specific demand support [10]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Supply - Russia: Facing continuous attacks on energy facilities and intensified sanctions from the US, UK, and EU. Pay attention to supply and logistics changes after sanctions. Before sanctions, raw material exports increased, and exports in October were relatively stable [15][17]. - Mexico: Tula refinery's coking device reduced fuel oil production. Olmeca refinery's high - sulfur production is expected to decrease gradually. High - sulfur exports in October recovered to about 500,000 tons [20]. - Middle East: High - sulfur exports increased slightly after the decline in power - generation demand. In October, daily exports were about 150,000 tons, up 2% from September [25]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Demand - Marine fuel demand: Stable support, with marginal growth from the increasing number of desulfurization tower ships. In September 2025, high - sulfur marine fuel consumption in Singapore and Fujeirah increased [34]. - Feedstock demand: Supported in the short - term by the crude oil quota gap in the fourth quarter. Pay attention to the re - issuance of crude oil quotas and the impact of sanctions. China's fuel oil imports increased in September [37][39]. - Power - generation demand: Completely subsided in Egypt and the Middle East [41]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - South Sudan: Due to the trade ban between the UAE and Sudan, low - sulfur export logistics changed, with crude oil diverted to the Singapore region. The external tender volume did not decrease significantly [44]. - Al - Zour refinery: Production decreased in October, and the restart of desulfurization devices may be delayed. Exports increased in October, and the 2026 maintenance plan was postponed [47]. - Dangote refinery: The gasoline device resumed production at a 60% operating rate in October. Two batches of low - sulfur straight - run products were tendered during the device shutdown. Exports decreased slightly in October [48]. - China: The fourth - quarter bonded low - sulfur production is expected to decline slightly. Sinopec and PetroChina have sufficient quotas, while CNOOC is short of quotas. Sanctions may affect the production of some refineries [49][51]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - High - sulfur fuel oil: Pay attention to supply logistics changes after sanctions. Exports from Mexico and the Middle East are stable. Feedstock demand is supported in the short - term [59]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Spot premiums are oscillating at a low level. The low - sulfur production of Al - Zour refinery is affected. EU sanctions have little impact on domestic supply. Nigerian RFCC devices are running at a low load, and South Sudan's low - sulfur raw material logistics are changing. Marine fuel demand is stable [59]. - Strategy recommendation: Short - term unilateral trading should be on the sidelines; for arbitrage, short the FU1 - 5 spread on rebounds and go long on low - sulfur internal - external spreads at low levels; no option strategy is recommended [59].