铁合金11月报：宏观情绪带动反弹，但供需压力仍存-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The previous undervaluation and macro - sentiment have boosted prices, but the supply - demand pressure has not been significantly alleviated. After the undervaluation situation is repaired, it can still be used as a short - side configuration within the sector [2][77] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook - Supply: The alloy supply side has not started a production - cut trend, and the overall output remains in high - level fluctuations. Silicon manganese (187 enterprises) had a September output of 898,400 tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and an 18.8% year - on - year increase. Silicon iron (136 enterprises) had a September output of 488,200 tons, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 5.9% year - on - year increase [2][23] - Demand: The molten iron output is gradually decreasing. Due to the slow progress of steel inventory reduction, steel profits are continuously compressed. With the seasonal decline in steel demand in November and possible phased production restrictions on some regional steel mills, the demand side still has a downward risk [2][23][76] - Cost: Manganese ore prices are differentiated. Since the resumption of shipments in June, the import volume of Australian ore has increased significantly, causing the price of Australian lumps to decline continuously. However, the overall manganese ore port inventory is still at a low level in the same period, and the spot prices of Gabonese and South African ores are still relatively firm. The cost side has some support, but the upward driving force for prices is insufficient [2][56][77] - Market sentiment: The 14th Five - Year Plan Outline mentions carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and there are expectations of capacity reduction or production control in the ferroalloy industry. Sino - US trade negotiations have made important progress, reaching a basic consensus [2][77] Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: After the undervaluation situation is repaired, it can still be used as a short - side configuration within the sector [3] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [3] Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In October, ferroalloy futures prices first declined and then rebounded. After the National Day holiday, steel inventory increased counter - seasonally, and the supply side remained at a high level, causing price declines. In mid - October, prices reached a low - valuation level, and with the decline in steel inventory and positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, prices rebounded [7] 2. Supply at High - level Fluctuations and Demand Slowly Declining - Supply: Silicon manganese production in September was 898,400 tons, with a slight decline expected in October. Silicon iron production in September was 488,200 tons, and it is expected to remain stable at a high level in October. On October 31, the national 136 independent silicon - iron enterprise sample start - up rate was 36.08%, and the daily average output was 113,200 tons. The 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprise sample start - up rate was 42.99%, and the daily average output was 207,700 tons [23] - Demand: Steel mill spot profits continued to decline, and molten iron output decreased slightly after mid - October. On October 31, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared to the previous period. It is expected that molten iron output will continue to decline in November [23] 3. Alloy Factory Inventory Oscillating Upward with a Significant Increase in Silicon Manganese Inventory - Alloy factory inventory: On October 31, the inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 71,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,400 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 314,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,500 tons [40] - Downstream inventory: Due to low steel profits, steel mills have the motivation to reduce raw material inventory. The available days of silicon iron and manganese silicon are stable with a slight decline, and it is expected to maintain a low - inventory state in November [40] 4. Manganese Ore Inventory at a Low Level and Australian Ore Prices Continuously Declining - Power coal and electricity prices: Port power coal prices were strong in October, and ferroalloy production area electricity prices fluctuated little, having no obvious impact on costs [52][56] - Manganese ore: The price of Australian lumps has declined continuously, with a cumulative decline of 1 yuan/ton degree in Tianjin Port in October. However, the overall manganese ore port inventory is at a low level in the same period, and the spot prices of Gabonese and South African ores are relatively firm. The cost side has some support, but the upward driving force for manganese silicon prices is insufficient [56]