铅锌日评：沪铅高位回落，沪锌持续上行动力或不足-20251031

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For lead, after a significant increase, the lead price faced downward pressure due to weakened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, improved supply, and better refinery profits. It is expected to continue to decline, and the recommendation is to hold previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, although the zinc price has some support from macro - sentiment improvement and a tightened domestic ore supply pattern, due to weak domestic terminals, its upward momentum is insufficient, and the recommendation is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Lead Market - Price Indicators: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged at 17,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 0.03% to 17,350 yuan/ton. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was not provided with a change percentage, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.18% to 8.58 [1]. - Supply - demand Situation: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has a slight fluctuation. A large - scale recycled lead refinery in the East China region is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons of recycled refined lead in November, increasing supply. The terminal market has improved, and the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is okay, increasing demand [1]. - Trading Strategy: Hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc Market - Price Indicators: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.18% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.29% to 22,365 yuan/ton. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 0.83% to 3,044.50 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio increased by 0.55% to 7.35 [1]. - Supply - demand Situation: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased to 3,250 yuan/metal ton last week, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 110.25 dollars/dry ton. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. The monthly output is expected to remain around 600,000 tons. The demand has not improved significantly, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [1]. Market News - A large - scale recycled lead refinery in the East China region started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and plans to start formal production this weekend, which is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons of recycled refined lead in November [1]. - The LME plans to formulate permanent rules to restrict members with large positions in near - month contracts when inventory levels are low. The new rules require members with long - position sizes exceeding the total inventory to borrow metals back to the market at zero premium, and expand the regulatory scope for shorter - term contracts. The consultation will be open until November 21 [1].