国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251031

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. Each commodity is expected to have different trends, such as high-level consolidation, short-term shock markets, or downward pressure [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: In a high-level consolidation market. PXN should be shorted on rallies. The domestic PX plant operating rate is 85.9% (+1%), and the Asian overall load operating rate is 78.5% (+0.5%). Lock in profits when PXN is above $230 [8]. - PTA: With the decline in oil prices, the valuation has dropped. The unilateral upside is expected to be limited. The PTA processing fee is expected to expand in the short term [2][9]. - MEG: In a short-term shock market. The upside is expected to be limited. Domestic supply is expected to contract marginally, but port inventories are expected to be high [2][9]. Rubber - Expected to move in a range. The import rubber market reported higher prices this week, while the domestic natural rubber spot market was weak. Overseas and domestic production areas were affected by typhoons and heavy rains, and raw material prices were high. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies is expected to increase slightly next week [10][13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Cost is moving down, but the macro environment is strong, and it is expected to move in a range. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber decreased this week, while the inventory of butadiene increased. The short-term market is expected to be volatile, and the medium-term price center is expected to move down [15][16][17]. Asphalt - Expected to follow crude oil and move in a range. This week, the domestic heavy-traffic asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, the asphalt device maintenance volume decreased, and the factory and social inventories decreased [18][30]. LLDPE - Expected to mainly move in a range. The domestic PE market price fluctuated narrowly this week. The upstream crude oil price fluctuated narrowly, and the overall maintenance loss increased. The demand for agricultural films and packaging films was weak, and the overall transaction volume was limited [32][33]. PP - Short-term decline has stopped, and medium-term is expected to be in a range. The domestic PP market price rose and then consolidated this week, and the price center moved up slightly. The short-term market rebounded reasonably, but the long-term downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally solve, so the market may be in a weak and volatile pattern in the medium term [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Valuation is suppressed. The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was weak this week, and most companies' inventories increased. The alumina industry has high production and high inventory, and the profit is continuously compressed. The caustic soda valuation is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation [40][41][42]. Pulp - Expected to move in a range. The domestic pulp market was flat this week, and the supply was loose. The downstream paper market tried to raise prices, but the actual implementation remained to be seen. The downstream overall operation was stable and weak, and the inventory problem was still prominent [46][48][50]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass market price was mainly stable today, and the market transaction was average. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. Float glass factories mainly reduce inventory and ship goods [51][52]. Methanol - Under shock pressure. The port methanol market weakened this period, and the inland methanol continued to decline. The methanol fundamentals are under great pressure, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term, with the medium-term price center moving down [54][57][58]. Urea - Under shock pressure. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased this week. The short-term fundamentals of urea are gradually weakening, but due to the macro-driven commodity index being strong and the coal price rising slightly, it is expected to present a volatile game pattern [59][60][62]. Styrene - Expected to mainly move in a range in the short term. The short positions should take profits. The crude oil price rebounded rapidly at a low level, driving the chemical valuation to repair upwards. The port inventory accumulation expectations of pure benzene and styrene in October have turned into destocking expectations. The short-term absolute price is mainly volatile [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market has changed little. The domestic soda ash market remained stable, and the price had no obvious fluctuation. The enterprise device fluctuation was small, the supply continued to hover at a high level, and there was no maintenance expectation. The downstream enterprise demand was lukewarm, and the market was weakly stable and volatile in the short term [67]. LPG - The official price of CP in November is slightly higher than market expectations. The PDH operating rate increased this week, and the MTBE and alkylation operating rates changed little [71][72]. Propylene - Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have changed to different degrees this week [72]. PVC - The trend remains weak. The PVC social inventory decreased slightly this week, but the year-on-year increase was 25.09%. The PVC market has a high production and high inventory structure, and the export growth rate may slow down [79]. Fuel Oil - Relatively weaker than low-sulfur fuel oil, and the volatility continues to increase. The low-sulfur fuel oil continues to be strong, and the price difference between high and low sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [81]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to consolidate in a range. The freight rates of European and US West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI have increased to different degrees [83].