宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term and mid - term views are "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term and mid - term views are "rising", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight downward bias", and the reference view is "bullish in the long - term". The core logic is macro - economic easing, mine production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Movement: The gold price has rebounded recently, approaching the $4050 mark [3]. - Market Expectation: After the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut in October, the internal policy divergence and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts have led to a decline in the market's expected probability of a December rate cut. After the APEC Sino - US summit, tariff relaxation policies were introduced, and the market showed a rebound trend after the positive news was digested. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $4000 mark [3]. Copper - Price Movement: After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, LME copper prices dropped significantly. Copper prices have increased significantly in the short - term and are facing historical high - level pressure, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Since late October, as the gold price has weakened, the copper price has been strong, and the gold - copper ratio has dropped significantly [4]. - Market Expectation: The Fed's internal policy divergence and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts have cooled the rate - cut expectation, which is negative for copper prices. In the long run, since late September, the expectation of supply contraction has increased, and copper prices have risen significantly with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11,000 mark for LME copper [4].