甲醇日评：延续震荡偏弱行情-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - Methanol continued its weak and volatile market. The upward driving force for methanol in the short - term is limited. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current strategy is to remain on the sidelines [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Changes - Futures Prices: MA01 increased by 16 yuan/ton (0.71%) to 2257 yuan/ton; MA05 rose by 18 yuan/ton (0.78%) to 2321 yuan/ton; MA09 went up by 14 yuan/ton (0.62%) to 2289 yuan/ton [1] - Spot Prices: Prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.44%) to 2240 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions such as Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged [1] - Cost and Profit: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-4.33%) to 220.70 yuan/ton; Northwest MTO profit dropped by 20 yuan/ton (-86.96%) to 3 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased by 12.50 yuan/ton (-1.75%) to -727.07 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 rose slightly, opening at 2234 yuan/ton, closing at 2257 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 585,627 lots and an open interest of 1,197,415 lots, showing a decrease in both volume and open interest [1] - Foreign: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and a previously shut - down 1.65 - million - ton plant has restarted at 80% capacity. The total estimated methanol loading volume in this Middle - Eastern country this month is around 8 million tons [1] 3.3 Market Analysis - Long - Short Logic: Methanol prices are relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices. The short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment demand. The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November, and potential future drivers may come from supply - side reductions such as gas restrictions in Iran [1]