镍与不锈钢日评：成本支撑走弱不锈钢逢高沽空-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: On October 29, the main nickel contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [1]. - Stainless steel: On October 29, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the upside space for stainless steel is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - Futures Market: On October 29, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 120300 yuan/ton, 121380 yuan/ton, 121560 yuan/ton, and 121710 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 950 yuan/ton, 980 yuan/ton, 950 yuan/ton, and 960 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 109262 hands (-47034), and the open interest was 109686 hands (-5360). The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15320 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122100 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of nickel beans was 123300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, nickel ore prices remained flat, the amount of nickel ore arriving at the port last week decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic production in October increased, and Indonesian production increased, leading to nickel - iron inventory reduction. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [1]. Stainless - Steel Market - Futures Market: On October 29, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 93841 hands (-3249), and the open interest was 98223 hands (-2030) [1]. - Spot Market: The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13550 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [2]. - Supply and Demand: In terms of supply, stainless - steel production in October increased, and the production of the 300 - series decreased. In terms of demand, the terminal demand was weak [1]. - Cost: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 612700 tons (-9000) [1]. News and Information - According to the statistics of each sub - association of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, in the first three quarters of 2025, the output of industrial silicon in new - energy metals was 328000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%; the output of electrolytic nickel was 347000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.6%; the output of refined cobalt was 134000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%; and the output of lithium carbonate was 588000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.0% [1].