申银万国期货早间策略-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States agreed to strengthen cooperation in the economic and trade fields, it did not significantly boost the stock index. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the RMB's appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. The market style may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different terms increased, with the increase ranging from 62.40 to 68.60. The trading volume of IF next - month contracts was 74,172.00, and the holding volume of IF next - month contracts was 153,415.00. The holding volume of IF contracts generally decreased, except for the IF far - season contract which increased by 1074.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for different terms decreased, with the decrease ranging from 16.20 to 19.00. The trading volume of IH next - month contracts was 41,888.00, and the holding volume of IH next - month contracts was 66,853.00. The holding volume of IH contracts generally increased [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for different terms decreased, with the decrease ranging from 20.20 to 28.40. The trading volume of IC next - month contracts was 82,049.00, and the holding volume of IC next - month contracts was 133,968.00. The holding volume of IC contracts generally decreased [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for different terms decreased, with the decrease ranging from 55.20 to 67.80. The trading volume of IM next - month contracts was 162,104.00, and the holding volume of IM next - month contracts was 190,757.00. The holding volume of IM contracts generally increased [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of inter - month spreads for different contracts were - 13.60 for IF, - 1.60 for IH, - 56.40 for IC, and - 74.00 for IM, all slightly different from the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.51%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.62%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 1.27%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 1.11%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index also changed to varying degrees [1] - Industry Indexes: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and other industries showed different degrees of decline, while the main consumption industry increased slightly by 0.01% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts for the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.44%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.15% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.33%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 2.46%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.23%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.12% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The leaders of China and the United States agreed to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade, energy and other fields, and promote people - to - people exchanges. The results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, including the cancellation of some tariffs by the US. The A - share listed companies' third - quarter reports showed that the total revenue in the first three quarters was 53.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 4.70 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The tax - free shop policy will be improved starting from November 1 [2] 6. Industry Information - The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in the third quarter of 2025 was 3.07%. 21 troubled real - estate enterprises' debt restructuring and reorganization were approved or completed, with a total debt - resolution scale of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The pilot area for pension wealth management products will be expanded to the whole country. The HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes fell. After the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points. The power equipment industry led the rise, and the communication electronics industry led the decline. The market turnover was 2.46 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds are expected to flow in. The market style may shift towards value [2]