中美会晤缓和紧张局势，?价震荡整理

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly strong" rating to precious metals, expecting the price of London gold to range between $3,900 - $4,200 per ounce and London silver between $47 - $52 per ounce [3] Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US meeting released positive signals, easing trade tensions and reducing safe-haven buying. However, it did not change the medium-term logic of easing and credit contraction. The Fed's policy combination is "loose with stability", which suppresses short-term bullish sentiment on the interest rate side while maintaining support on the liquidity side [1][3] - The improvement in the trade environment boosts manufacturing expectations, and the relatively tight liquidity in the London market makes silver's performance relatively strong. If the subsequent Sino-US negotiations continue to improve, the recovery of industrial demand will drive the silver price to strengthen further [3] - If the negotiation results are successfully implemented but the macro data is weak, precious metals will maintain a shockingly strong pattern [3] Summary by Directory Key Information - The results of the Sino-US leaders' meeting are positive. Trump said he would lower tariffs on fentanyl-related goods and discuss the export of NVIDIA AI chips. The two sides reached a consensus on rare earth supply and agricultural product procurement, and market risk appetite rebounded [2] - The high-level talks focused on supply chain and investment issues. China proposed to selectively open investment areas, and Trump said he was "willing to consider resuming investment cooperation in non-sensitive industries" [2] - Geopolitical issues are still sensitive. The US refused to make substantial concessions in the security field but will maintain strategic ambiguity. Although it is difficult to form a "big deal" in this meeting, it helps to control conflict risks [2] - Gold ETFs had the largest single-day outflow in nearly half a year, indicating that institutions took short-term profits [2] Price Logic - Gold: The Sino-US meeting released a signal of easing, suppressing safe-haven buying in the short term. The Fed's policy combination is "loose with stability", which suppresses short-term bullish sentiment on the interest rate side while maintaining support on the liquidity side. Although some funds took profits at high levels, central bank gold purchases and fiscal deficit expansion still provide medium-term support [3] - Silver: The improvement in the trade environment boosts manufacturing expectations, and the relatively tight liquidity in the London market makes silver's performance relatively strong. If the subsequent Sino-US negotiations continue to improve, the recovery of industrial demand will drive the silver price to strengthen further. However, considering the high volatility of precious metals, short-term technical corrections need to be guarded against [3] Market Performance - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was not detailed; the commodity index was 2,250.38, down 0.57%; the commodity 20 index was 2,544.78, down 0.52%; the industrial product index was 2,246.75, down 0.87% [42] - The precious metal index was 3,210.36, with a daily decline of 0.13%, a decline of 2.14% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.77% in the past month, and an increase of 45.11% since the beginning of the year [44]