中信期货：鲍威尔略显硬派，美元指数反弹压制基本金属

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rebound of the US dollar index, influenced by Powell's hawkish remarks, suppresses base metals. Short - term supply disruptions support base metal prices, but macro - support weakens. Long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to drive up prices. [1] - For specific metals: copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening; alumina prices are expected to oscillate; aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term and have a rising central price in the medium - term; aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term; zinc prices are expected to oscillate, with a downward trend in the long - term; lead prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening; nickel prices are expected to be oscillating and weakening; stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term; tin prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. [2][6][7][9][10][15][17][20][22][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Copper - Information: In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month (a 4.31% decline) and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. As of October 30, copper inventory decreased by 0.19 tons to 18.26 tons. [6] - Logic: The 14th Five - Year Plan and the easing of Sino - US trade relations improve market sentiment. Copper supply is constrained, and demand is affected by high prices. [6] - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. [6] 2. Alumina - Information: On October 30, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina increased by 5 yuan, and the national weighted index increased by 7 yuan. Alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2389 tons to 225761 tons. [6][7] - Logic: Macro - sentiment cools down. High - cost production capacity fluctuates, and the market is in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. [7] - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate. [7] 3. Aluminum - Information: On October 30, the SMM AOO average price was 21200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories changed, and the Fed cut interest rates and stopped balance - sheet reduction. [8] - Logic: The macro - environment is positive. Domestic production capacity is increasing, and overseas supply is disrupted. Demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing. The copper - aluminum ratio is high, and aluminum is undervalued. [9] - Outlook: Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term and have a rising central price in the medium - term. [9] 4. Aluminum Alloy - Information: In October, the estimated scale of the narrow - sense passenger car retail market is expected to be about 2.2 million, a 2% decline from the previous month. Warehouse receipts are increasing. [10] - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and cost support is strong. Supply is affected by policies and demand, and demand is marginally improving. [10] - Outlook: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term. [10] 5. Zinc - Information: On October 30, the spot zinc price had different discounts to the main contract. As of October 30, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 16.53 tons. [14] - Logic: Macro - optimism is being realized. Zinc ore supply is loosening, and demand is entering the off - season. [15] - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, with a downward trend in the long - term. [15] 6. Lead - Information: On October 30, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was stable, and the lead ingot inventory decreased. [16] - Logic: The spot premium increased slightly, supply is recovering, and demand is in the peak season. [16] - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. [17] 7. Nickel - Information: On October 30, LME nickel inventory decreased by 66 tons to 25.164 tons, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 99 tons to 31532 tons. [17] - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the market. The supply of nickel ore is loose, and the market is in surplus. [20] - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to be oscillating and weakening. [20] 8. Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was stable. The price of high - nickel pig iron was stable, and in September, China's nickel - iron imports reached a record high. [21] - Logic: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and chromium prices are stable. Stainless steel production increased in September, and inventory is decreasing. [21] - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. [22] 9. Tin - Information: On October 30, the London tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 130 tons to 2830 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased by 73 tons to 5682 tons. The spot price of tin decreased by 1200 yuan/ton. [22] - Logic: Tin supply is constrained. Production in Wa State and Indonesia is affected, and the processing fee of tin concentrate will remain low. Refined tin production is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. [23] - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. [23] 10. Market Monitoring - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures decreased by 0.57%, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.52%, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.87%. The non - ferrous metals index decreased by 0.74% on that day, increased by 0.01% in the past 5 days, increased by 5.01% in the past month, and increased by 8.13% since the beginning of the year. [148][150]