光大期货金融期货日报-20251031

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock market is expected to continue its structured bullish trend. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's communique boosts market confidence, but caution is advised when chasing high in the Sci - tech Innovation Index due to its historical extreme valuation. Attention should be paid to the third - quarter report index revenue year - on - year data this week [1]. - The bond market is expected to be bullish in the short term as the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient liquidity. However, without interest rate cuts and with rising market risk appetite, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous growth and should be viewed with an interval - oscillation mindset [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - The market oscillated and adjusted throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both falling more than 1%. The communique focuses on several major themes, which are in line with market expectations and boost market confidence. The current valuation of the Sci - tech Innovation Index is at a historical extreme, and caution is needed when chasing high. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations are constructive, and this week is the intensive release period of the third - quarter reports [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - On October 30, the central bank conducted 342.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. The central bank governor said that the central bank will resume treasury bond trading and explore a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - bank institutions. In the short term, the bond market is expected to be bullish, but it lacks the impetus for continuous growth [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined on October 30 compared to October 29, with declines of 0.65%, 0.90%, 1.23%, and 1.10% respectively. For stock indices, the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also declined, with declines of 0.54%, 0.80%, 1.27%, and 1.11% respectively. For treasury bond futures, TS declined by 0.02%, TF remained stable, T rose by 0.06%, and TL rose by 0.28% [3]. 3. Market News - A total of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, including 250 billion yuan from the China Development Bank, 100 billion yuan from the Export - Import Bank of China, and 150 billion yuan from the Agricultural Development Bank of China, which is expected to drive total project investment of over 7 trillion yuan [4]. 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, showing their price trends and basis changes from January 2024 to July 2025 [6][8][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures, covering data from 2023 to 2025 [13][15][17]. Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen from 2023 to 2025 [20][22][24][25].