镍与不锈钢日评：成本支撑走弱，不锈钢逢高沽空-20251031

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Nickel Market: On October 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and closed low. The spot market had decent trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - Stainless Steel Market: On October 30, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening, so the upside potential of stainless - steel prices is expected to be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - Price and Trading Volume Changes: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 99,113 hands (-10,149), and the open interest was 107,897 hands (-1,789). LME nickel prices also declined, with the LME 3 - month nickel official price down by $105 [2]. - Supply - side Situation: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - Demand - side Situation: Ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - Inventory Situation: SHFE nickel inventories increased, LME nickel inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume Changes: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures active contract was 105,051 hands (+11,210), and the open interest was 89,093 hands (-9,130) [2]. - Supply - side Situation: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - Demand - side Situation: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - Cost - side Situation: The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. - Inventory Situation: SHFE stainless - steel inventories remained flat. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 61,270 tons (-9,000) [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - Nickel: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Stainless Steel: The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].