综合晨报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall Market: The market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, trade relations, and supply - demand dynamics. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has brought positive signals to the market, but various commodities still face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][21][37]. - Commodities: Different commodities show diverse price trends. Some are under pressure due to supply surpluses, while others are supported by factors such as demand recovery or supply shortages. The report provides specific analysis and trading suggestions for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. Brent 12 - contract fell 0.28%. The mid - term supply - demand pressure on crude oil remains due to OPEC +'s continuous production increase, but the easing of the Sino - US trade war provides short - term support. There is still a downside risk [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil followed the crude oil's oscillating trend. High - sulfur fuel oil's support may be limited in the long - term, and the mid - term supply pattern is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is generally weak, but supply may contract due to refinery incidents. There are opportunities to go long on the high - low sulfur spread [22]. - LPG: The near - month LPG contract continued to be strong. The decrease in supply and increase in demand due to improved chemical profits and cold weather support the price [24]. Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The Fed's rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks, along with the Sino - US tariff reduction, led to volatile market sentiment. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating [3]. - Base Metals: - Copper: After reaching a record high, copper prices pulled back. The long - position can be held above 86,500 [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The short - term trend is slightly strong, but the upside space is limited [5]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventory is at a low level, supporting the high - level operation of LME zinc. There is a short - term callback pressure on the external market. Zinc ingot exports are expected to increase, and it is not recommended to short - sell Shanghai zinc in the fourth quarter [8]. - Lead: High lead prices suppress downstream demand. However, LME lead is in the process of destocking, and there may be opportunities for cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are weak, with the center of gravity tending to move down due to over - supply in the industry [10]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to be short - sold, and the short - position can be held below 285,000 [11]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [7]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the price of aluminum and is difficult to have an independent market due to high inventory levels [6]. Chemicals - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC has recovered from a low level, but the fundamental situation is still weak. Caustic soda continues to accumulate inventory, and the price is expected to be low [30]. - PX & PTA: Supply is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [31]. - Methanol: The near - term port inventory pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly but may gradually stop falling [26]. - Urea: The supply exceeds demand, but demand and cost support the price. The short - term market is expected to operate at a low level [25]. Agricultural Products - Soybean & Bean Meal: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the trade situation has improved. Domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, and bean meal inventory has decreased slightly. Pay attention to policies on US soybean imports [37]. - Corn: The supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the import situation after the Sino - US trade improvement [41]. - Cotton: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton also declined slightly. New cotton costs have increased, providing some support, but the market is still cautious due to weak demand [44]. - Sugar: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output forecast. The output expectation in Guangxi is relatively good [45]. Others - Shipping: The current booking demand in November is weak, but the cargo volume is expected to recover in late November. Airlines may raise prices, and it is advisable to go long on the freight index of container shipping (European line) at low levels [21]. - Equity Market: A - shares fell with heavy volume, and futures indices also declined. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have positive effects on the medium - term market sentiment. Focus on the technology - growth sector [49]. - Bond Market: Treasury bond futures oscillated strongly. The bond market is entering a recovery phase, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50].