铜：历史新高之后，铜价走向何方？

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Despite the Fed's hawkish stance after the rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting results being slightly below expectations, the macro - sentiment is expected to remain positive due to rate cuts, progress in economic and trade negotiations, and the domestic "15th Five - Year Plan" guidelines. The industry shows a sustained tight supply expectation for copper mines, a tightened global electrolytic copper supply in the fourth quarter, low copper inventories in China and LME, and strong seasonal copper consumption. Therefore, the copper price, which has reached a historical high, may continue to strengthen [2][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Copper Price and Position - On October 29, both the London copper price and the SHFE copper price reached historical highs, with LME copper hitting a maximum of $11,200 per ton and SHFE copper's main contract reaching a maximum of 89,270 yuan per ton. Along with the price increase, the positions of LME and SHFE copper significantly increased, and the total position reached a relatively high historical level [2][4]. 3.2 Macro - sentiment - Global trade tensions have significantly eased. After the threat of a 100% tariff on China by US President Trump in early October, China and the US held video conferences and agreed to a new round of economic and trade negotiations. The market risk preference improved as the US signed reciprocal trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and a framework trade agreement with Thailand. Although the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC summit did not result in a formal agreement, the potential reduction of existing tariffs and the continuation of economic and trade negotiations are still beneficial to the market [5]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected on October 30, with the current federal funds rate at 3.75% - 4.0%, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Although Fed Chairman Powell's stance was hawkish, the interest rate's support for the economy is expected to strengthen. With reduced inflation pressure in the US and a slowdown in the labor market, the Fed's monetary policy is not expected to tighten. Domestically, the "15th Five - Year Plan" guidelines also boosted the overall sentiment [6]. 3.3 Supply - The supply of copper mines remains tight, and the degree of tightness has intensified. Since October, companies such as Teck Resources, Antofagasta, Anglo American, and Glencore have lowered their annual production guidance. According to the data of 16 listed companies, the annual production guidance in the third - quarter report was about 300,000 tons lower than that in the second - quarter report, with the annual production guidance at about 13.2 million tons, a decrease of about 170,000 tons compared to the actual production in 2024 and a reduction of over 3% compared to the 2024 annual report guidance [10][12]. - The tight supply of copper mines has led to a decline in the copper concentrate refining fee TC and a continuous decrease in the copper concentrate inventory at domestic ports, tightening the spot supply. It has also increased the probability of production cuts and maintenance at the smelting end. Overseas, Japanese and Indonesian smelters have announced maintenance or production cuts. Domestically, the production of electrolytic copper increased significantly in the first three quarters, mainly due to increased imports of copper concentrates, recovery of domestic copper concentrate production, increased production of blister copper from scrap copper, and consumption of copper concentrate inventories. However, in the fourth quarter, the supply of raw materials for domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to face greater pressure, with a significant reduction in the year - on - year increase in production and a decrease in the quarter - on - quarter production [12][19][24]. 3.4 Demand - The global visible inventory of electrolytic copper is not low but has a structural problem, with most of it concentrated in the COMEX market, while the inventories in SHFE and LME are low. The US may impose tariffs on refined copper in 2026, so there is a need to stockpile copper to hedge against tariff risks. The positive COMEX - LME spread and the once - opened import arbitrage window also create demand for copper imports in the US, and the US copper inventory is not expected to flow back to non - US markets in the short term [27]. - Although the rising copper price has suppressed downstream consumption willingness, the current downstream consumption of copper is not in the off - season, and there are still rigid demands in new energy, data centers, and power. With the reduced substitution of refined copper by scrap copper, the domestic copper inventory is not expected to accumulate significantly during the copper price increase [27].