宏观继续提振市场情绪，基本?分化主导价格表现各异

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino - US trade frictions continue to boost market sentiment, but the differentiation of fundamentals leads to different price performances of sector varieties. The supply - demand of coal and coke remains balanced with high - level price oscillation, while high inventories of steel and continuous inventory accumulation of iron ore lead to price declines [1][2]. - The marginal weakening of the supply - demand pattern is the main feature of the later fundamental situation, which still poses upward resistance to the prices of some sector varieties. At the same time, there is still a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy levels. It is recommended to seize the upward opportunities under favorable macro and policy conditions [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The weekly molten iron output has decreased as expected. The weakening of steel mill profitability and the start of the off - season will limit the recovery space of molten iron after the end of environmental protection restrictions. Iron ore arrivals are expected to recover, and inventory is expected to increase marginally. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not prominent. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, the finished product data has slightly improved, and the downward driving force of scrap steel is limited. It is expected that the short - term scrap steel price will mainly follow the finished products [2][10]. Carbon Element - Coke: Under environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is temporarily tightened, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not large. With the continuous increase in raw coal prices, coke has started three rounds of price increases. However, although the finished product prices have slightly recovered recently, steel mill profits are still under pressure, and the game between steel and coke continues. It is expected that the coke price will oscillate [2][12]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, the coal mine inventory has dropped to a recent low. The short - term fundamentals are healthy. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will oscillate, waiting for further macro and policy boosts [2][13]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost is stable, and the high output of steel supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the driving force for the price increase of manganese silicon is insufficient [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the ferrosilicon price in the short term. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward price space is limited [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Some manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase is implemented and the sales situation after implementation. If the sales remain weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][14]. - Soda ash: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center of gravity will still move down to promote capacity reduction [3][16]. Specific Varieties - Steel: The macro sentiment is volatile, and the futures price is under pressure to decline. The spot market trading is generally weak, and the market sentiment has deteriorated. The fundamentals are improving, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the short - term futures price will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro policy disturbances [8]. - Iron ore: The molten iron output has decreased significantly, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The spot price has weakened. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not large. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - Scrap steel: The arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the price is oscillating. The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [10]. - Coke: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand is temporarily tightened. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to increase, and coal mines continue to reduce inventory. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [13]. - Glass: Manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase and the sales situation. If the sales are weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the long term, the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. - Soda ash: After the supply recovery, manufacturers have returned to the inventory accumulation state. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center of gravity will move down [16]. - Manganese silicon: The driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the futures price is oscillating. The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic [17]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand relationship is still loose, and there is pressure above the futures price. The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the price in the short term, but the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose [18]. Related Indexes - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.57% to 2250.38, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.52% to 2544.78, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.87% to 2246.75 [99]. - The steel industry chain index on October 30, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.68%, a 5 - day increase of 2.52%, a 1 - month decline of 0.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.96% [101].