中辉期货：螺纹钢早报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bearish [1] - Iron Ore: Bearish allocation [1] - Coke: Reduce long positions [1] - Coking Coal: Reduce long positions [1] - Silicomanganese: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel Products: The supply and demand of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both weak in the off-season. The decline in hot metal production weakens the support for raw materials. The Sino-US meeting has led to the implementation of tariff easing measures, and the steel market has limited contradictions [1][4]. - Iron Ore: The hot metal production has decreased significantly this week due to environmental protection control in Tangshan and maintenance of some loss-making steel mills. The static fundamentals are moderately weak, and the short-term ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7]. - Coke: The second round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, and the third round is on the way. Although the profits of coke enterprises have slightly improved, they are still mostly in a loss state. The price increase faces obvious pressure [1][11]. - Coking Coal: The coal mine production and operating rate have decreased slightly. The supply may tighten in November, and the demand has weakened marginally. The short-term price increase faces pressure [1][15]. - Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon: The supply in the production areas remains high, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have become looser [1][19]. 3. Summary by Variety Steel Products - Rebar: Weekly production and apparent demand increased month-on-month, inventory continued to decline, and it conforms to the off-season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The mid-term will maintain range-bound operation, and the current position may face short-term weakness [1][4][5]. - Hot-rolled Coil: The apparent demand and production have both recovered, and the inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years. The mid-term is range-bound, and there may be a short-term correction [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Market Conditions: The hot metal production has decreased significantly, steel mills have reduced inventories, and ports have accumulated inventories. The static fundamentals are moderately weak [1][7]. - Price Trend: The short-term ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the exhaustion of short-term macro-positive factors [1][7]. Coke - Market Conditions: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is on the way. Coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in a loss state. Steel mills' inventory is moderately low [1][11]. - Price Trend: The price increase faces obvious pressure, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [1][11][12]. Coking Coal - Market Conditions: Coal mine production and operating rate have decreased slightly, and the supply may tighten in November. The demand has weakened marginally [1][15]. - Price Trend: The short-term price increase faces pressure, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [1][15][16]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese: The supply in the production area remains high, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased. The manganese ore price has slightly increased, and the short-term cost provides some support [1][19][20]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply in the production area remains high, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased significantly. The fundamentals have become looser, and it is recommended to be bearish [1][19][20].