有色观点-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Long - term strategic value of gold remains unchanged due to global currency easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction; short - term geopolitical issues cause small price increases [3] - Long - term positive outlook for copper due to strategic value, but short - term high - level risks are significant [6][7] - Zinc is under pressure in the short - term with sufficient macro - level positive factors realized, and in the long - term, supply increases while demand decreases [10][11] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short - term, supported by terminal consumption in the peak season [2] - Nickel prices are under pressure due to sufficient domestic supply and inventory accumulation, with only some support from the peak consumption season of nickel sulfate [2] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show no obvious contradictions, and it can be treated with a long - position approach in the short - term due to optimistic market sentiment [2] - For polysilicon, positive policies boost market sentiment, and long - positions can be held [2] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have improved in the short - term, with obvious inventory reduction and strong terminal demand, so long - positions can be held [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Market Situation: After the G2 meeting, short - term geopolitical issues lead to a small increase in gold prices. Trump's support rate has declined, geopolitical issues are recurring, and the Senate has passed a resolution to terminate Trump's tariff policy [3] - Investment Strategy: Long - term strategic value is high, and long - positions can be held. In the short - term, entry can be considered when prices stop falling, with a support level of 910 for domestic gold [3][4] Silver - Market Situation: The short - term squeeze event has ended, and silver follows the trend of gold. In the long - term, global policy stimulates demand, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap [2] - Investment Strategy: Long - positions can be held for the long - term, with a strong support level at 11200 [2] Copper - Market Situation: High - level retracement after the G2 meeting. Trump has revoked emission restrictions on copper smelters, and domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. High prices suppress demand [6] - Investment Strategy: Short - term: stop profit on long - positions and wait for prices to stabilize. Long - term: strategic long - positions can be held. Short - term, pay attention to the range of 84500 - 88500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10500 - 11200 dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - Market Situation: Pressure on prices due to sufficient supply of zinc concentrates and weak demand in the peak season. The domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and overseas soft - squeeze risks persist [10] - Investment Strategy: In the short - term, it is under pressure; in the long - term, it is a short - position allocation. Pay attention to the range of 22000 - 22500 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2950 - 3050 dollars/ton for London zinc [11] Aluminum - Market Situation: High - level consolidation, with alumina showing a slight stabilization trend. Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, and domestic consumption in the peak season provides support [12][14] - Investment Strategy: In the short - term, take profit on long - positions when prices are high. Pay attention to the operating range of 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [15] Nickel - Market Situation: Rebound is restricted due to inventory accumulation. Overseas supply disturbances are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is increasing. Stainless steel inventory removal pressure is high [16][18] - Investment Strategy: Sell on rebounds. Pay attention to the operating range of 120000 - 123000 yuan/ton for nickel [19] Industrial Silicon - Market Situation: Fundamentals show no obvious contradictions. Northern production starts to slow down, and southern production is affected by the dry season. Downstream demand is weak, but market sentiment is optimistic in the short - term [2] - Investment Strategy: Consider long - positions in the short - term, with a range of 9100 - 9300 [2] Polysilicon - Market Situation: Positive policies boost market sentiment, with a contrast between strong expectations and weak reality [2] - Investment Strategy: Hold long - positions [2] Lithium Carbonate - Market Situation: Fundamentals have improved in the short - term, with continuous inventory reduction and strong terminal demand. Supply is still growing, but there are some production restrictions in Sichuan [20][22] - Investment Strategy: Consider long - positions in the range of 82800 - 85500 [23]