养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Oil: On Thursday, soybean oil showed a strong performance. Although Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, the commercial import profit of US soybeans is negative, and the cost increase supports domestic soybean prices. With ample domestic soybean oil supply and the over - hanging shadow of palm oil production increase, soybean oil will mainly bottom - out and adjust in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. The support level of the main soybean oil contract is 8050 - 8080 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8350 - 8400 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: On Thursday, the main rapeseed oil contract continued to be weak. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and the rapeseed sector is still affected by macro - economic and trade policies. The Sino - US summit released positive signals, which is negative for supply - side production. The expected meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders strengthens the expectation of relaxed rapeseed imports, pressuring rapeseed oil sentiment. The current rapeseed oil inventory is at a relatively high historical level, but the new supply is tightening, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. If there is no substantial relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies, the rapeseed sector is still optimistic in the medium - to - long term under the expectation of inventory reduction. For the main rapeseed oil contract, short positions should be reduced on dips. The support level of the OI main contract is 9350 - 9380, and the pressure level is 9900 - 9930 [3]. - Palm Oil: On Thursday, palm oil prices opened low and closed high, showing an overall weak trend. The over - expected production increase in Indonesia may offset the increase in biodiesel consumption, and the decline in international crude oil prices also weakens palm oil. As palm oil will enter the production - reduction season in November, the downward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, palm oil may bottom - out and fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main palm oil contract is 8750 - 8780, and the pressure level is 9300 - 9350 [4]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2: On Thursday, soybean meal prices were firm. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, and the export signal of US soybeans is positive, driving up CBOT soybeans. The export potential of South American soybeans is declining, and the cost end supports the price of soybean No. 2. The import cost of soybeans increases, and the oil mill's profit margin narrows. Soybean meal is expected to remain firm, and it is recommended to go long lightly in the short term. The support level of the main soybean meal contract is 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton. The support level of the main soybean No. 2 contract is 3600 - 3650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3750 - 3810 yuan/ton [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: On Thursday, rapeseed meal prices rebounded slightly after the opening. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and it is slightly boosted by the rebound of soybean meal. The market is worried about the relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies. The current supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both weak, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. However, the demand in the fourth quarter is seasonally weak. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the RM main contract is 2280 - 2300, and the pressure level is 2450 - 2480 [4][5]. - Corn and Corn Starch: On Thursday, the prices continued to fluctuate weakly. The Sino - US trade negotiation results are in line with expectations, and the pressure of concentrated listing continues to suppress the market. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is coming to an end, and the selling pressure is gradually releasing, while the downstream support is insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or consider the reverse spread opportunity of the corn 1 - 5 spread. For the corn 01 contract, the support range is 2000 - 2020, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200. For the corn starch 01 contract, the support range is 2350 - 2360, and the pressure range is 2500 - 2520. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - Soybean No. 1: On Thursday, the price of soybean No. 1 stagnated and adjusted. The price of new - season soybeans in the Northeast market has risen steadily, but the purchasing enthusiasm of grain trading enterprises is low. The supply of Northeast soybeans is increasing, but there is a sentiment of reluctance to sell at the grass - roots level. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has cooled slightly, and it is recommended to exit long positions. The pressure level of the soybean No. 1 01 contract is 4150 - 4200 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - Peanuts: On Thursday, the peanut futures price continued to oscillate weakly at the bottom. The market lacks positive themes. The new - season peanut planting area in 2025 increased by 4.01% year - on - year, but the yield in some areas of Henan may decline due to weather. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, there is still pressure on spot and futures prices. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 [6]. - Pigs: On Thursday, the futures price of pigs decreased with increasing positions. The market is still worried about the risk of pig hoarding. The spot price stopped falling this week, and the basis difference between the 2511 contract and the spot price is gradually narrowing. It is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range of the 01 contract is 11800 - 12000, and the pressure range is 12500 - 12800 [7][8]. - Eggs: On Thursday, the futures price of eggs rose first and then fell. The spot price stopped rising and adjusted after a continuous rebound. The overall consumption is gradually entering a seasonal peak season, and the egg production capacity is gradually being reduced. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The reference range of the 12 contract is 2900 - 3100, and the pressure range is 3300 - 3350 [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - Oilseeds: Soybean No. 1 01 is expected to bottom out and stabilize, and it is recommended to exit long positions; soybean No. 2 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; peanut 11 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Oils: Soybean oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short lightly; rapeseed oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to reduce short positions; palm 01 is expected to bottom out, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Protein: Soybean meal 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; rapeseed meal 01 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Energy and By - products: Corn 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions; starch 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions [11]. - Livestock Farming: Pig 01 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude; egg 12 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - Cross - month Arbitrage: For most varieties, the reference strategy is to wait and see, while for some, such as corn 5 - 1, it is recommended to go long at low prices, and for pig 1 - 3, it is recommended to do positive arbitrage at low prices [13]. - Cross - variety Arbitrage: Different cross - variety combinations have different reference strategies, including short - term operations, long - term operations, and waiting and seeing [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [14]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [15][16]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [17]. b. Feed - Daily Data: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [17]. - Weekly Data: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including consumption, inventory, operating rate, etc., are presented [18]. c. Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, production and sales data, inventory data, and profit data [19][20][21][22]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock Farming End (Pigs, Eggs): Multiple charts show the price trends, inventory, and trading volume of pigs and eggs [23][27][29][30] - Oils and Oilseeds: Charts cover the production, inventory, trading volume, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [32][40][49] - Feed End: Charts display the price trends, inventory, operating rate, and profit of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][63][68][80] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts show the historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties [89][91] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts present the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [97][100][105]