有色商品日报-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices weakened overnight, with LME copper inventories decreasing by 400 tons to 134,950 tons, Comex copper increasing by 1,841 tons to 316,304 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increasing by 1,692 tons to 37,437 tons. Although Sino-US economic and trade relations have made progress, market risk appetite has declined. However, with geopolitical easing and expected progress in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, copper prices may rise steadily in 2026 due to potential supply shortages. But there are also differences in the market, as high copper prices may suppress terminal demand [1]. - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. Alumina plant profits have been further compressed, and high-cost production capacity has occasionally reduced production. Overseas supply disturbances have reappeared, and domestic aluminum water supply has increased, leading to a continuous contraction in aluminum ingot supply and a smooth destocking process. The market should continue to pay attention to downstream sentiment feedback above 21,000 yuan to determine whether aluminum prices can stabilize and rise [1][2]. - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.01% to $15,250 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.4% to 120,760 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventories decreased by 66 tons to 251,640 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants increased by 99 tons to 31,532 tons. First-grade nickel inventory pressure is emerging, and nickel prices are fluctuating. Attention should be paid to macro and inventory conditions [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On October 30, 2025, the price of flat copper was 88,025 yuan per ton, up 295 yuan from the previous day. The total domestic and bonded area social inventory was 274,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous day. The active contract import profit and loss was -770.9 yuan, an increase of 440 yuan from the previous day [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,250 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory was 224,875 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The SHFE warrant decreased by 1,352 tons to 21,645 tons [4]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi quotation was 21,200 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The total SHFE inventory was 118,168 tons, a decrease of 3,860 tons from the previous day. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 626,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous day [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 123,500 yuan per ton, up 300 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory was 251,706 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The SHFE nickel warrant increased by 99 tons to 31,532 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price was 22,420 yuan per ton, up 0.1% from the previous day. The LME S3 price was $2,505.5 per ton, unchanged from the previous day. The domestic social inventory was 163,200 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous day [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price was 284,690 yuan per ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The LME S3 price was $27,540 per ton, down 2.1% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory was 5,766 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous day [7]. 2. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium and Discount: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums and discounts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 to 2025 [9][11][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 to 2025 [16][19][23]. - LME Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 to 2025 [25][27][29]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 to 2025 [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 to 2025 [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 to 2025 [44][47][49]. 3. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals research team at Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won multiple industry awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research, both providing in - depth reports and policy interpretations for clients [52][53].