光大期货软商品日报-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.39% to 65.09 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.11% to 13,600 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 902 lots to 577,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,545 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, Powell unexpectedly took a hawkish stance, reducing the probability of a 25BP rate cut in December, but it's still likely. After the China - U.S. summit in South Korea, there was some easing in tariffs. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated around 13,600 yuan per ton. The market sentiment was divided. Looking ahead, there are relatively optimistic expectations for the macro and fundamentals. The current supply peak will gradually ease, and the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is not very loose. Zhengzhou cotton has a bottom support, and the upward drive depends more on the macro level [1]. - For sugar, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the government of Uttar Pradesh will raise the sugar - cane price by up to 300 rupees per ton. The purchase price of early - maturing sugar - cane is set at 4,000 rupees per ton (equivalent to 321.24 yuan per ton), and that of ordinary varieties is 3,900 rupees per ton (equivalent to 313.21 yuan per ton). The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5,660 - 5,750 yuan per ton, with only a few down 10 yuan per ton; Yunnan sugar - making groups' price is 5,590 - 5,640 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of processed sugar is 5,790 - 5,950 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged. The Fed's rate cut was in line with market expectations and had limited impact. Raw sugar continued to hit new lows on Thursday, lacking buying and a bottom - finding drive. Domestic Yunnan sugar mills have started crushing, and Guangxi will start in mid - November. Benefiting from restricted imports of syrup, the price shows strong resistance to decline, but the rebound is weak under the high - yield expectation. It should be treated with a volatile mindset, and news from the Chengdu Sugar Conference should be watched [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Cotton: The international market is affected by Fed's interest - rate policy and China - U.S. tariff relations. Domestically, the futures price fluctuates around 13,600 yuan per ton. There are optimistic expectations for the future, and the supply pressure will ease. Zhengzhou cotton has bottom support, and the upward drive depends on the macro level [1]. - Sugar: The government of Uttar Pradesh raises the sugar - cane price. The spot price of sugar has little change. Raw sugar hits new lows, and the domestic sugar price shows resistance to decline but weak rebound under high - yield expectation. It should be treated with a volatile mindset [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,243 yuan, up 23 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,658 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan, and the national average is 14,843 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 65 yuan, unchanged; the main - contract basis is 278 yuan, up 22 yuan. The spot price in Nanning and Liuzhou is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On October 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,434, down 26 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,228. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 14,658 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,873 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,884 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,954 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.2, unchanged; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.8, down 0.1; the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 30, up 0.1 [3]. - Sugar: On October 30, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou was 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,541, down 84 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 586 [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse - receipt data of the main contracts, showing the historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][15]