黑色商品日报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand data of steel has improved, with production rising, inventory decreasing significantly, and apparent demand rising. It is expected that the short - term steel futures market will operate in a narrow - range consolidation [1]. - For iron ore, supply is increasing, demand is weakening due to production restrictions and reduced iron - water output, and inventory is rising. Short - term ore prices show an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. - Coking coal supply is restricted, but market sentiment is positive. Demand is maintained, but some enterprises are cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. - Coke supply is reduced due to cost and environmental factors, and demand is slightly reduced but still supported. Short - term coke futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon prices are slightly boosted by market sentiment. Although some regions may reduce production, overall production is difficult to decline significantly. Demand and cost provide some support, and inventory is accumulating. Short - term prices have some support but limited upward drive [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon production is slightly reduced, demand is not strongly boosted, cost provides support, and inventory is high. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3106 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.09 million lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume decreased. This week, national rebar production increased by 5.52 tons week - on - week to 212.59 tons, social inventory decreased by 6.68 tons week - on - week to 430.81 tons, factory inventory decreased by 12.92 tons week - on - week to 171.71 tons, and apparent demand increased by 6.19 tons week - on - week to 232.19 tons [1]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 was 802.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and an increase of 9,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices of mainstream varieties declined. Australian shipments were stable, Brazilian shipments continued to increase, and global shipments increased. Iron - water production decreased by 3.54 tons week - on - week to 236.36 tons, and the blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96%. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 163.44 tons week - on - week to 15,272.93 tons, and the number of ships at ports increased by 8 to 119. The inventory of imported ore in national steel mills decreased by 229 tons week - on - week to 8,850 tons [1]. - Coking coal: The closing price of coking coal 2601 contract was 1288 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or 1.08% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 14,346 lots in positions. The price of lean coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1270 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1170 yuan/ton. The production of over - producing coal mines was still restricted, and the coke price was rising, driving positive market sentiment. The inventory of coal mines was low, and online auction prices mainly increased. Coke enterprises' raw - coal inventory was at a medium - low level, and the third round of price increase in the coke market started. However, some enterprises were resistant to high - price resources and purchased cautiously [1]. - Coke: The closing price of coke 2601 contract was 1786.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 747 lots in positions. The spot price of coke at ports increased. Due to high coking - coal prices, coke enterprises' profit margins were squeezed, and some enterprises reduced production. The inventory of coke enterprises was low. Environmental policies affected steel mills in many places, and the daily consumption of coke by steel mills decreased slightly, but the demand was still supported by relatively high iron - water production [1]. - Manganese silicon: On Thursday, the price of manganese silicon futures oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5842 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 2092 lots to 339,800 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous day. The subsequent Yunnan dry season may lead to an increase in electricity prices and enterprise production cuts, but other regions have limited willingness to cut production. The steel - procurement price has slightly increased, and the cost is relatively stable, while inventory is accumulating [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Thursday, the price of ferrosilicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5550 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 3552 lots to 166,200 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, with prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increasing. A large ferrosilicon enterprise in Gansu reduced production, affecting daily output by about 300 - 310 tons. Weekly production decreased by 0.7% to 113,200 tons. Downstream steel - mill consumption was relatively low, and the demand for magnesium metal was okay. Cost provided support, and inventory was high [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads and basis: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various varieties (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon) are provided, along with their latest values and week - on - week changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month contract spread of rebar was - 53.0, up 10.0 week - on - week, and the basis of the 01 contract was 107.0, down 22.0 week - on - week [4]. - Profit and price spreads: Data on profit (such as rebar盘面利润, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, double - silicon spread) are provided, along with their latest values and week - on - week changes. For example, the rebar盘面利润 was - 137.9, down 4.6 week - on - week, and the coil - rebar spread was 212.0, down 2.0 week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main contract prices: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon) from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - Main contract basis: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026 [16][18][21][23]. - Inter - period contract spreads: Charts show the spreads of different - period contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [25][27][32][33][35][37][39][41]. - Inter - variety contract spreads: Charts show the spreads between different varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coal - coke ratio, double - silicon spread) of main contracts from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45][46]. - Rebar profit: Charts show the profit of rebar (main - contract盘面利润, long - process calculated profit, short - process calculated profit) from 2020 to 2025 [48][49][50][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry and has won many industry awards [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute and has rich experience and many awards in the field of动力煤 [54]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55].