申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the central bank's supportive monetary policy and the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations, market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which will support the prices of short - term treasury bond futures [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends on the previous trading day. The T2512 contract rose 0.06% and its trading volume increased [2] - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Short - term market interest rates generally declined on the previous trading day. SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 2.8bp, DR007 rate dropped 3bp, and GC007 rate dropped 8.6bp [2] - The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined on the previous trading day. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 0.5bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 30.38bp [2] 3.3 Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 3bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield dropped 0.4bp [2] 3.4 Macro News and Strategy - The central bank conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 30, with a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan [3] - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations are conducive to the stability of the economic situation [3] - The new 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan and promote economic development [3] - The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the third time, believing that inflation has reached the target level [3] - Money market interest rates mostly declined, while US treasury bond yields rose collectively [3]