甲醇日报：港口库存压力持续，仍未见伊朗冬检-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The port inventory pressure of methanol persists, and the winter inspection plan in Iran has not been announced yet. If Iran fails to conduct winter inspections, the port inventory pressure will be difficult to relieve. Inland inventory has further increased, with coal - based methanol production resuming in November. The demand for inland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - term spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA2601 - MA2605, MA2605 - MA2609, MA2609 - MA2601) [7][8][12] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [7][27][34] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations). The port total inventory is 1506470 tons (-5730 tons), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 90.27% (-0.15%) [3][7][37] 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows various regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest (-280), the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550), and the difference between Taicang and Lunan (-250), etc. [3][7][41] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [7][51][60] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - term: Conduct a sell - high reverse spread for MA2601 - MA2605 - Cross - variety: None [5]