工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,155 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.94%. The position increased by 7,102 lots to 228,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot by Baichuan was 9,554 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 285 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.15%. The position increased by 7,622 lots to 126,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount narrowing to 490 yuan/ton [2]. - Due to production cuts in the southwest and silicon factories holding back supplies and raising prices, along with rising costs of silicon coal and electricity, the operating center of industrial silicon has moved upward. Due to the quota arrangement of the industry association, production cuts in silicon wafers after November are basically certain. Although the weekly production schedule of silicon wafers has increased significantly, the current high output is more likely to be a stage of concentrated production rush before the enterprise quota, and cannot be confirmed as a signal of actual demand improvement. The last week of October may be the stage of a production rush in the industry [2]. - Recently, the industry announced that 17 enterprises have signed for the production capacity storage platform. Coupled with the fact that downstream procurement has exceeded upstream output for the first time, it supports polysilicon to continue to operate strongly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 9,155 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 9,185 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of some grades such as 421 silicon in some regions increased slightly, and the spot discount narrowed from - 330 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 72 to 47,410, the factory inventory increased by 400 to 262,500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 400 to 445,500 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the near - month contract decreased by 370 yuan/ton to 52,490 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot discount narrowed from - 860 yuan/ton to - 490 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 210 to 9,330, and the inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 2.4 to 28.26 tons [4]. - Organic Silicon: The spot price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][13]. 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, social warehouses, DMC, and polysilicon [23][27]. 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [31][33][38]. 3. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of commodity research experience; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [40][41].