2025年10月房地产市场跟踪：新房交易规模仍在下探，“好房子”正成为支撑市场的主力军

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the real estate industry, emphasizing the importance of "good housing" as a key market driver [2][5][7]. Core Insights - The implementation of the national standard "Residential Project Specification" has led to various local governments promoting the construction of "good housing," which has become the mainstay of market sales [2][6][7]. - The transition period for managing ongoing projects under the new regulations has been established in several cities, allowing previously approved projects to continue under existing plans, which helps mitigate potential cost increases and delays for developers [3][5][6]. - The report highlights that while the new regulations may raise costs for developers, the government is actively working to optimize the business environment and provide incentives to balance these challenges [6][7]. Market Trends - New home transaction volumes continue to decline, but "good housing" products are maintaining high sales momentum, particularly in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, where new home sales have shown significant year-on-year growth [6][7]. - In September, the average price decline of new homes has been narrowing, with a notable increase in sales volume during the traditional peak season, although year-on-year sales figures remain down [8][9]. - The report notes that the inventory pressure remains significant, with the total area of unsold commercial housing continuing to be at historical highs despite a month-on-month decrease [9][10]. Policy Measures - The report outlines that various local governments are implementing targeted measures to stabilize the real estate market, including enhancing housing provident fund support, promoting purchase subsidies, and optimizing purchase restrictions [8][9]. - The focus on "quality improvement" and "value creation" is reshaping the competitive landscape of the industry, with larger firms likely to benefit more from the new regulations compared to smaller enterprises [6][7].